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1/ A thread of my most popular threads
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This is bad for business at 538 because it would cause the model to show less volatility, making it less exciting to watch and generating fewer page views.
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That will obviously reduce returns in the short term, but it increases the ergodicity (https://taylorpearson.me/ergodicity ) of the portfolio, making it more robust and less susceptible to blow up risk.
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You have to build in margin of error, favoring higher bias E.g. In investing, if you are trying to decide how much leverage to add to an investment portfolio, figure out the largest historical drawdown and double it (at least)
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The greatest vol always exists in the future so any purely historical analysis is clipping off the tails, creating blow up risk.
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Based on the assumptions you plug into the model, you can tradeoff between high bias and high variance. I would argue that 538 (and many other people making predictive models based on past data) bias too much towards high variance.
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Models with high variance are more tightly coupled with the training data. They are highly explanatory in-sample but may not generalize well on unseen data (i.e. great backtest, poor live results).
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Models with high BIAS tend to be simple and generalize well out of sample, but they may leave some explanatory power on the table i.e. middling backtest but live results are more likely to resemble simulated results.
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This chart from 538 actually shows one of the main problems with many types of predictive models. Your greatest volatility always exists in the future so any purely historical analysis is clipping off the tails. To quote
@paulg, history is merely all the data we have so farhttps://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1224167401287245824 …
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“due to the Universe’s expansion and the presence of dark energy, 97% of the observable Universe is already unreachable, even if we left today at the speed of light.” If The Universe Is 13.8 Billion Years Old, How Can We See 46 Billion Light Years Away?https://buff.ly/2oWoI7D
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Great list of career tips from
@sama How To Be Successful (At Your Career, Twitter Edition)https://buff.ly/36SRWro pic.twitter.com/iFtm879azh
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Binging through
@breakingthemark's archive for the second time. Like a fine wine, it seems to have gotten better with age. Highly recommendedHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Taylor Pearson proslijedio/la je Tweet
This is one of the clearest explanations I’ve seen on this, kudos Wayne!https://twitter.com/waynehimelsein/status/1223251751018647552 …
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Taylor Pearson proslijedio/la je Tweet
What we’re reading:
@parkeralewis discusses the role of money in civilization, how the world might converge to a single currency, and why bitcoin will be the currency to obsolete all others. From@unchainedcaphttps://unchained-capital.com/blog/bitcoin-obsoletes-all-other-money/ …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Taylor Pearson proslijedio/la je Tweet
The internet enabled the world to achieve all sorts of efficiency gains from increasing temporal asynchronicity (in comms, tv viewing, etc). But one of the costs has been a fracturing of our cultural synchronicity. We live in the great unbundling now.
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Love this lined from Vonnegut "If this isn't nice, what is?" Something I could do a better job of remembering. h/t
@MutinyFundpic.twitter.com/qw7lCOrpzp
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“Though it feels unpleasant, and people will sometimes ridicule you for it, the more you feel like a noob, the better.” https://buff.ly/36zj8va
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Human thinking in a system creates a positive feedback loop which drives a system further and further out of equilibrium until we have a "phase shift" that breaks the system. Hence boom and bust cycles Soros: General Theory of Reflexivity https://buff.ly/2O8tU4V pic.twitter.com/4HdZkKXS3d
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"We do not need better leaders and better processes. These are nice-to-haves, but are not game-changers. We need better systems who do not need better leaders and better processes." What will we have learnt? - https://buff.ly/36EMGaC from
@dellannalucaHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Live action footage of naive systematic volatility sellershttps://twitter.com/NatureisScary/status/1208571220796551168 …
0:26Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
How else can you train yourself or an organization to increase it's tempo?
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