Otavio (Tavi) Costa

@TaviCosta

Crescat Capital portfolio manager. Native of Sao Paulo, Brazil 🇧🇷

Denver, CO
Vrijeme pridruživanja: lipanj 2014.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    25. tra 2019.

    The recipe for a hard landing: Historical global debt imbalances. Record overvalued assets prices. Faith in central banks having control of the business cycle. Thank you for the opportunity to share our ideas.

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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Time for the valuation insanity of the day. is in the fiercely competitive, high overhead IT services business, a massive grower...of SG&A! That's OK. It's a SaaS business. So let's give it a 25x EV-to-sales multiple! Never mind the profitability. Y2K all over again!

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  3. Playing with fire… Another cut and Brazilian overnight rates are now below inflation for the first time in history.

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  4. 5. velj

    Best economy ever. Durable goods new order growth just contracted again. It has declined for 5 months straight! Only happened 3 other times: May 2001 Sept 2008 July 2015 Key detail: *That’s pre coronavirus epidemic*

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  5. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    4. velj

    Too many electric utilities look like this one, : Record debt; Worsening negative free cash flow; and Historic EV-to-sales multiples Investors think they are haven stocks, bond alts. More likely they will be cutting dividends in the coming recession.

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  6. 4. velj

    5-Year CAPE ratio is officially at its 2nd highest level in 100+ years. Who cares, bulls say: "Valuations can still reach tech bubble levels." Please… Debt imbalances today are incomparable. What we have is a mix of absurd multiples with extreme leverage.

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  7. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    3. velj

    The valuation lunacy chart of the day goes to . Is it really worth 10x EV to sales? The multiple expanded almost 3-fold since 2013 while revenues declined. Sales per share peaked in 2016.

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  8. 3. velj

    Validation. Copper Just broke down from 17-year support. Don’t tell me copper isn’t relevant anymore. - Electricity - Transportation - Electronics - Machinery - Construction A clear barometer for the health of the global economy.

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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    1. velj

    An abundance of valuation absurdities in this manic market. is just another example. EV to sales jumped from 12 to 36 times last year as revenue growth decelerated and negative free cash flow continued. 510 times 2020 expected earnings!

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  10. 31. sij

    The kiss of death for stocks. S&P 500 just formed a gravestone doji on its monthly candle. Technicals, fundamentals & macro. A bearish alignment after the longest bull market in history.

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  11. 31. sij

    56%. That’s the % of inversions in the US yield curve today. On the verge of the critical 70% again. Every time it first exceeded this level: - The S&P 500 fell by 27% on average for the next 2-years - A recession coincided or followed. Already first breached in August 2019.

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  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij

    was a hot stock last year but became a crowded long. Historically a cyclical stock, it trades at its highest EV to sales ever ahead of a likely business cycle downturn. Inventories grow and prices get cut in recessions. and are tough competitors.

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  13. 30. sij

    This pic says it all

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  14. 30. sij

    Dip buyers, consider the following: Thanks for the article

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  15. 30. sij

    Macro Madness Series. ➖ Cracks in the U.S. economy ➖ Peak reliance on central banks ➖ Bitcoin as a key solution ➖ China Issues Thanks & for having me at the iTunes: Spotify:

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  16. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij

    🚨The 1st episode of our new Macro Matters series is live! Was an absolute privilege to have Tavi Costa on to discuss his views on all things macro, markets, and (of course) Bitcoin. All feedback welcome!🚨 iTunes: Spotify:

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  17. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij

    🚨 The Macro Madness Series Drops Today with Guest Host and first guest ! ➖ Cracks in the U.S. economy ➖ Peak reliance on central banks ➖ Bitcoin as a key solution ➖ China Issues iTunes: Spotify:

    Prikaži ovu nit
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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij

    There is a major disconnect between stock prices and underlying fundamentals. US economy-wide corporate profits have been in a declining growth trend and just turned negative. The same pattern led directly to past bear markets and recessions.

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  19. 30. sij

    Truly insane. The median EV to Sales ratio for the stocks is now 3.6x. Twice as high as it was at the peak of the tech & housing bubbles. The breath of valuations has never been so frothy. Our in-depth research below:

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  20. 29. sij
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  21. 29. sij

    Buckle up. Oil & copper plunging while gold rallies? This only happened a few other times in history: During the Great Recession & just prior to the EM meltdown. Commodities are clearly acting like a selloff in stocks is approaching.

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