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The #AdrianDarya1 has now changed its destination to the (Bay of) Iskenderun, Turkey. At this point, it doesn’t mean anything. Consider this just a record update rather than anything substantial. We believe a transfer is still a few days away. Turkey will not import this oil.pic.twitter.com/RfuTvduoKZ
Just killing time. They might as well just stop moving and save some fuel.pic.twitter.com/GEvbVME2CY
Press Release by .@USTreasury #OOTT
Treasury Targets Oil Tanker Adrian Darya 1 and its Captainhttps://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm765 …
And if the vessel does end up delivering oil to the East Med's deepest port (Tartous, Syria) then that will most likely create a diplomatic rift of mistrust between EU & Iran. Currently, there's enough oil swarming towards Syria as it is. 3M barrels.https://twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/1167576352473702401?s=20 …
Vessels currently in Syria:
SAVIOR arrived with 1M barrels. Laden with Iranian oil since April.
JASMINE & SANDRO. Latter is recently acquired by Syria and assists Iranian vessels post-sabotage.
Approaching Syria:
SILVIA I; STARK I and SARAK. Each laden with 1M barrels.
#OOTT
Given how much oil is currently en route to Syria (as well as immediately available) and is expected to arrive over the coming days, we still do not believe there is a need for AD1 to deliver to Syria. Iran never sends oil to Syria all the way around Africa. 12-14 days via Suez.
One comment about the SAVIOR (Comoros-flagged Suezmax tanker): She seems to be a contingency plan in case the Iranian national fleet (NITC) doesn’t arrive. As of yesterday, she hasn’t discharged her oil in Baniyas. August imports were very low so far. She’s there as backup.
SAVIOR spent two months in the anchorage of Mersin, Turkey before suddenly departing it on August 27th. Her AIS was switched on briefly in Baniyas the following day for just half an hour. Not the most impressive effort to hide. Was confirmed by satellite imagery the same day.
BREAKING: @planetlabs satellite imagery captured this morning (Aug 31st, 2019) shows that Iran-flagged Suezmax SILVIA I has begun its delivery of oil to the Baniyas refinery whereas the Comoros-flagged Suezmax SAVIOR still hasn't as there are still 2 more Suezmaxes inbound. #OOTTpic.twitter.com/QzOGtFVrZh
We see several possibilities going forth given that all three (SILVIA I, STARK I and SARAK) wave Iranian flags, is that either the 1st one (SILVIA I) will complete her delivery to Baniyas and then rendezvous with #AdrianDarya1 for an STS, or that they wait for last one; SARAK.
And just as we tweeted that out, AD1 changed her destination yet again to “FOR ORDER”. We believe it will be Syria’s waters for STS offloading in order to sail back to Iran via the Suez Canal. #OOTTpic.twitter.com/qVzRwFN3F2
Please note that the map above shows the latest AIS positions even though only 1 of the 6 vessels (AD1) is still transmitting its location. All have relocated. STARK I should reach Syria tomorrow. If not Baniyas, then there’s Tartous, which has a pipeline to the Homs refinery.
In response to @SecPompeo’s tweet yesterday:https://twitter.com/jzarif/status/1167816108092600320?s=21 …
We interrupt our usual programming with this special announcement: We'll be reporting & blocking Twitter accounts we suspect are misusing/misconstruing our research for the purpose of perpetuating lies, especially of political nature. We are documenting a historic event. Thx
With only 29 nautical miles left to reach Syria's waters, the AD1 could meet up with the Iranian-flagged SILVIA I in a day or two. We believe the SBM pipeline in Baniyas may be repaired, otherwise she wouldn't have used it. SILVIA I is the first best STS candidate right now.pic.twitter.com/3VjPcoI99a
The ARGO 1 delivered 700K barrels of crude oil a few days ago to Baniyas and then headed back home via the Suez. What's rare though is that she's now broadcasting Kharg Island, Iran as her destination. We haven't seen that in a while across the fleet. Possible change of protocol.pic.twitter.com/PhZlZqG6jQ
As happy customers, we're going to shamelessly promote our favorite maritime data source @MarineTraffic for their exceptional AIS coverage. With a global network of 4,339 VHF-based listening stations, y'all can track AD1 in real-time!
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/zoom:8/mmsi:422263900/shipid:416354/ …
Some of you have asked if AD1 has enough fuel given that she sailed all the way around Africa. Great question. We looked into the AIS records and saw that she met with a bunkering vessel in Gibraltar on July 31st for 2h. 400 tonnes isn't much though; ~4 days worth at full speedpic.twitter.com/rbppIg0cak
Good morning, everyone. The AD1 has now stopped in international waters between Baniyas, Syria and Cyprus.pic.twitter.com/Jtf5YJvxbt
BREAKING: #AdrianDarya1 is now reporting that she will reach her destination in two days time, on September 3rd, 2019 at 06:00 UTC. The proverbial can got kicked further down the road. Seems like they’re going to wait for STARK I to complete delivery to Syria as well. #OOTTpic.twitter.com/DiiVuFr0T2
Satellite image captured by @esa this morning of the #AdrianDarya1. She is shown here sailing south between Cyprus and Syria. You can also see by her wake that she is moving very slowly.pic.twitter.com/GosyWzoctZ
AD1 has 3 potential Iranian-flagged Suezmax tankers to transfer up to a million barrels of oil to. 1) SILVIA I (no visual confirmation if delivery to Baniyas was completed today) 2) STARK I (should be in Syria by now with 1MB aboard) 3) SARAK (will enter Suez soon with 1MB)
Happy Fortnight Threadversary!
Our Live thread of the #AdrianDarya1 is now 2wks old!
We are doing this so that journalists & fellow researchers will have an accurate account of events thanks to the data. Also, to avoid repeating ourselves to the press.
Our answer: See thread.
Good morning, everyone! The #AdrianDarya1 has stopped just 45 nautical miles (83km/52 miles) west of Tripoli, Lebanon in international waters. Dear Lebanese journalists, please chill. Thank you.pic.twitter.com/EZ3Sb3atwD
She’s moving back north again. Let’s see if tomorrow will be the big day as previously hinted over the weekend. We are still waiting for a visual confirmation. Thanks.pic.twitter.com/GGGo9XJ9Et
The #AdrianDarya1 has now gone presumably dark off the AIS grid as signals aren't arriving via terrestrial VHF listening stations or via Satellite-AIS. She's been offline for over 100 minutes. We'll wait and see because this sort of thing happens at times. No rumors, thanks.pic.twitter.com/cAD4csSe4V
Since Aug 2019, Syria received Iranian crude oil from:
- ARGO 1 (700K)
- SAVIOR (1M, but hasn't delivered to refinery)
- SILVIA I (1M sighted delivery on Aug 31)
- STARK I (1M, awaiting visual)
- SARAK (1M, just exited Suez for Syria)
Aug 2018 thru July 2019= 17M barrels #OOTTpic.twitter.com/rew3G9Knxs
FACTS - EVERY SINGLE ONE of these vessels used the Suez Canal to reach Syria from Iran. - Iran has no need to ship all the way around Africa to reach Syria. Complete waste of time. - Egypt does NOT block Iranian flags in the Suez Canal due to 1888 Convention of Constantinople.pic.twitter.com/Q6HQ3VklJw
Good morning, everyone. It’s been over 12 hours since #AdrianDarya1 was last transmitting her position. It is now safe to assume she is in Syria’s territorial waters. We’ll hopefully be able to spot her during the day in satellite imagery. Thanks. #OOTTpic.twitter.com/JXitL52rOu
Currently situated just north of Egypt’s Sinai peninsula, the 1M barrel laden SARAK has just informed us that she is awaiting orders. Iranian vessels never park here, however Syria is busy right now. SARAK’s crew can definitely catch morning cartoons from Israel for breakfast.pic.twitter.com/QC2djSmLr7
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