Regarding plans for quarantine--US residents returning from Hubei to be in mandatory quarantine for 14 days on military bases. It's one thing to have up to 1,000 people in a military quarantine for 2 wks, https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/02/01/pentagon-prepared-to-house-nearly-1000-quarantined-us-citizens-over-coronavirus-fears/ … but what happens as the epidemic expands?(14/x)
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At the start of 2009H1N1 initial case fatality estimates were much higher than would prove to be the case when more data was collected with time. There is good reason to think that CFR in nCoV will also fall substantially when we get more info over time. (25/x)
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If nCoV starts spreading in US it's not because USG failed to contain it, it's because it'll have been a dz that was not possible to stop. That needs to be communicated clearly, or the public may lose confidence in the response, and that will make challenges of nCoV worse.(26/x
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But there are now many accounts of people saying their loves ones died without diagnosis and many more undiagnosed either bc not tested due to kit shortages, or rejection of admittance to hospitals. The numbers are skewed on both sides to an extent of varying degrees.
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CFR is not 2% correct, it can't be calculated based on the total number of ill. So, it is actually several times higher. And, China data are not correct anyway. A lot of people are dying on the streets, in their apartments - they are not included in the statistics.
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Hopefully this is already happening. We saw you quickly this got out of hand in China.
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Best estimates On CFR are likely to come from:https://twitter.com/C_Althaus/status/1224078639219838979 …
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But we need more data from outside China for CFR estimates to become accurate.
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"During March 1--April 30, a total of 1,918 suspected cases were reported, including 286 probable and 97 confirmed cases. A total of 84 deaths were reported." CDC Dispatch on new influenza in Mexico. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm58d0430a2.htm …
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Its way too early to know any of those facts and figures. We are dealing with a country who limits access to the truth. We will never know the actual numbers until it is over.
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CFR with SARS went up not down when spread to other countries from China!
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Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
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