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Sunetra Gupta

@SunetraGupta

Joined October 2014

63.6K Followers

Sunetra Gupta’s Tweets

Thank you for picking out the perfect summary of my position

Quote Tweet

Kulvinder Kaur MD

"We inverted precautionary principle of trying to minimize harm by doing the one thing that we knew would cause harm: lockdowns.. What we do see very sadly.. harms unfolded.. We sit watching devastation that we knew these measures would cause 2yrs ago” —Oxford Prof @SunetraGupta

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1. Astonishing that the link to the

in this piece takes you to a defamatory article in the

rather than the GBD website, gbdeclaration.org

theguardian.com

Britain got it wrong on Covid: long lockdown did more harm than good, says scientist

A new book outlines the mistakes and missteps that made UK pandemic worse

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That’s absolute nonsense and highly offensive twitter.com/andrew_lilico/

This Tweet is unavailable.

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This could never have been anticipated but we must still all in the biomedical community take responsibility for this, even those who warned against vaccinating individuals who were very unlikely to develop life-threatening symptoms upon infection,

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Vinay Prasad MD MPH

Replying to @VPrasadMDMPH

Damage to vax programs will be horrific in decades to come. This administration has made major errors. It pushed too hard on the wrong ages, wrong risk groups; It demanded too little evidence from Pfizer. When necessary childhood vaccine programs collapse, they will be to blame

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For poor countries, lockdowns cost more lives than they save - Prospect Magazine

prospectmagazine.co.uk

For poor countries, lockdowns cost more lives than they save

In tackling the Covid-19 pandemic, solutions for rich countries do not apply universally

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Thank you, Allison, for your support and let’s hope 2022 is a better year for all of us

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Allison Pearson

@AllisonPearson

We salute the great @MartinKulldorff @DrJBhattacharya and @SunetraGupta who never foreswore the principles of epidemiology to fall in line with a cowardly and hysterical anti-scientific consensus. History will restore them to their rightful place. twitter.com/MartinKulldorf…

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Models are wonderful conceptual tools, but should never be used to make predictions in the face of high uncertainty nature.com/articles/35088 We need strategies - like Focused Protection - that are robust to uncertainty, rather than unreliable predictions.

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Mike Haynes - a Jobbing Leftie Historian

@JobbingLeftieH

1/- The problem with epidemiological modelling The discussion of their meaning reflects 1. Unexpected centrality of these models in policy formation. 2. Lack of serious discussion (including by modellers) of their philosophy. [nice short piece here} ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P

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Thanks, Allison. Here's the original paper from July 2020 showing how it impacts cumulative mortality medrxiv.org/content/medrxi

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Allison Pearson

@AllisonPearson

Exactly what Professor @SunetraGupta said from the very beginning. The common cold had given many of us some protection against Covid. twitter.com/Telegraph/stat…

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2. Misrepresenting the

as a “let-it-rip” strategy and yet endorsing focused protection has lately become a common ploy among scientists and journalists but it is disappointing to see it trotted out by old friends and colleagues.

tinyurl.com/yc48bjxfhttps:

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4. Lockdown is not just a dial you can turn up and down at will. Focused protection presents the only viable solution, given the harms of lockdown. collateralglobal.org

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EDITORIAL: Putting children and their social interactions first will be key to mental health recovery in a post-pandemic world - Collateral Global

collateralglobal.org

EDITORIAL: Putting children and their social interactions first will be key to mental health...

"The pandemic and associated mandated restrictions have damaged the mental health of children and adolescents enormously."

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Finally breaking my twitter silence with this:

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EEID research group

Fundamental principles of epidemic spread highlight the immediate need for large-scale serological surveys to assess the stage of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic (soon to be on medRxiv) @SunetraGupta dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9

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3. Those who are desperate to distance themselves from the GBD fail to acknowledge is that it is impossible to avoid the harms of lockdown and yet mitigate spread.

theguardian.com

Britain got it wrong on Covid: long lockdown did more harm than good, says scientist

A new book outlines the mistakes and missteps that made UK pandemic worse

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So disappointing to have to battle this out in the media rather than through a phonecall, Danny, but here are some explainers on what herd immunity actually means and how it is independent of the rate of loss of immunity collateralglobal.org/article/how-se collateralglobal.org/article/mini-l

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In which an immunologist at Imperial College London discovers that a virus that brings only short-term immunity, and for which we have only a non-sterilising vaccine, cannot be eliminated. theguardian.com/commentisfree/

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Reinstated in the hope of enticing you both back…

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I am deeply saddened and disappointed in your characterisation of the GBD although I know you mean well, Francois

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Jay Bhattacharya

@DrJBhattacharya

This is naive, Prof. Balloux. You are protecting your good nature on powerful lockdowners like Fauci, Collins, and Farrar, who by Oct. 2020 had already caused devastating harm. In their hubris, they would never have compromised, as that would have meant admitting error. [1/2] twitter.com/BallouxFrancoi…

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Thank you, James, for adding substantially to our analyses and for getting the message across far more clearly than us - as Jose has already said.

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A recent analysis from Oxford presented a range of model scenarios consistent with observed COVID death counts. I’m going to reproduce their analysis here and then present some slight modifications to provide a conservative (if technical) perspective. (gonna be 15ish tweets)

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Thank you to Freddie and the rest of the UnHerd crew for scrupulously seeking to present every side of this debate right from the start

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In 2020, Prof @SunetraGupta was pilloried for her suggestion to @UnHerd that the Covid Infection Fatality Rate could be close to 5 in 10,000. Three years on, new data from Denmark suggests the real figure is... 6.5 in 10,000. Read her response here: unherd.com/thepost/how-wr

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“We are all responsible for this…as well as not being directly to blame”

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Dr Aseem Malhotra

@DrAseemMalhotra

Before I exposed ambulance delay cover up in my dad’s death I was told by a senior NHS cardiologist not to as it ‘would make me enemies’ I ignored his advice because ‘Those who do nothing are inviting shame. Those who act boldly are recognising right as well as reality’ JFK

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I agree with everything that you say and my opinion, for what it’s worth, is this was not a lab leak – but how can you say you uphold these principles when you have repeatedly vilified me and others for suggesting that lockdowns were not the most humane solution to this crisis?

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Kristian G. Andersen

I want to reiterate my statement from yesterday that the politicization of science and targeting of scientists we’re observing is deeply concerning and will not stand. At the same time, we need scientists more than ever, so to the budding ones, do not let this discourage you! twitter.com/cspan/status/1…

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Strange to think that this was three years ago

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Replying to @TheEliKlein and @DrJBhattacharya

@SunetraGupta September 2020 We need to make sure 160 Million people don't starve to death, that's really important.

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Our attempts to challenge their conclusions were invariably rejected without review medrxiv.org/content/10.110 Waning of infection-blocking immunity with seasonality in transmission is sufficient to explain the dynamics collateralglobal.org/article/how-se

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Replying to @FraserNelson

There was an early Warwick study suggesting EOTO made things worse - but this theory disproven by later data.

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Thank you, Molly

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'This is really devastating for children.' @UsforThemUK co-founder Molly Kingsley reacts to news that English secondary school pupils will have to wear face masks in classrooms again. @ianpaynesport | @lensiseethrough

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The Left's Covid failure - UnHerd

The Left's Covid failure

Amplifying the crisis is no way to rebuild trust

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This article misrepresents our views

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Really important article on the polarisation of public scientific discourse in covid, dominated by extreme views Needless to say it’s not representative of most scientists It’s just what generates most clicks It was never zero covid vs do nothing thetimes.co.uk/article/warrin

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1. To my mind, the only coherent explanation for the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in most global settings is that it played out as a classic coronavirus (SIRS with seasonality), with the first peak occurring in many regions before March 2020

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It is indeed telling that they will not engage directly with me and the tone of their messages is quite shocking. I’m happy to discuss the issues directly with them as Twitter is not the best platform for it. I'll follow through with some points they will need to consider. twitter.com/GladiatrixRedu…

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Collateral Global Crowdfunder - JustGiving

Collateral Global Crowdfunder - JustGiving

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That’s very well put, thank you

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anonymous historian and hat collector

Replying to @SunetraGupta

I enjoyed your interview on @thepopularpod . One of the points you made there, which so many seem to have missed (deliberately or otherwise), is that GBD was general statement of principles that would require different specific policies in different contexts

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A lovely reason to break my Twitter silence -

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New episode today with @SunetraGupta from @OxfordBiology talking to @Joe_Woodman1999 about modelling epidemics! Listen below: open.spotify.com/episode/3YE6p2 linktr.ee/oxpods

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It is indeed telling that they will not engage directly with me and the tone of their messages is quite shocking. I’m happy to discuss the issues directly with them as Twitter is not the best platform for it. I'll follow through with some points they will need to consider.

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@GladiatrixRedux

Replying to @whippletom @freddiesayers and 2 others

@sunetragupta as this group of men hasn't had the courtesy to put their questions (and deeply sexist assertions) directly to you, I thought I would offer you the opportunity to respond.

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This does not do justice to this wonderful book but perhaps it is a sign that the LRB are starting to appreciate how consummately lockdowns disrespect left wing values

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lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v43/ Tks John Lanchester for reviewing The Covid Consensus in @LRB. Only a 4-word review ("A bracing anti-lockdown polemic"). But 4 words is progress. It represents liberal media's acknowledgement of a valid anti-lockdown position which is hard to criticise

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Just for the record, I have no problem with mandates (I argued with the PHE about implementing a measles vaccine mandate which they rejected) as long as they are an enactment of the social contract. I would happily accept an age-specific mandate if it protected children twitter.com/leoniedelt/sta

This Tweet is unavailable.

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I repeat: Models are wonderful conceptual tools, but should never be used to make predictions in the face of high uncertainty nature.com/articles/35088 We need strategies - like Focused Protection - that are robust to uncertainty, rather than unreliable predictions.

Avoiding ambiguity

Nature - Scientists sometimes use mathematics to give the illusion of certainty.

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We should have listened to Prof Muliyil and other humble individuals like him who only wanted to reduce human suffering

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Prof Gupta stating what Muliyil said more than a year earlier; imagine if we’d treated this pandemic differently, w/ protection of the weak AND the wage earner: twitter.com/timesradio/sta

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Thank you for your support and for your excellent contributions to the general debate

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Vital Resistance

Just donated to the good people at Collateral Global. If you are also concerned by both the impact and precedent of global lockdowns, please consider giving whatever amount you can. Learn about CG here: collateralglobal.org And consider donating here: justgiving.com/campaign/colla

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When will Covid really be over? Three things that will mark the end of the pandemic | Erica Charters

theguardian.com

When will Covid really be over? Three things that will mark the end of the pandemic | Erica Charters

History tells us the end of a deadly outbreak isn’t just about medical data – it’s about political and social changes too, says historian Erica Charters

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Grammatical mistakes are such a good reason to retweet - With due respect, when I took up my pen to sign the GBD what I thinking of were the millions who would die of poverty and neglect rather than those who might suffer from the withdrawal of bodily autonomy

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With due respect, when I took up my pen to sign the GBD what I thinking of of the millions who would die of poverty and neglect rather than those whose who might suffer from the withdrawal of bodily autonomy twitter.com/SunetraGupta/s…

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With due respect, when I took up my pen to sign the GBD what I thinking of of the millions who would die of poverty and neglect rather than those whose who might suffer from the withdrawal of bodily autonomy

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Just for the record, I have no problem with mandates (I argued with the PHE about implementing a measles vaccine mandate which they rejected) as long as they are an enactment of the social contract. I would happily accept an age-specific mandate if it protected children twitter.com/leoniedelt/sta…

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Particularly as a close friend of 35 years…

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Jay Bhattacharya

@DrJBhattacharya

Replying to @DrJBhattacharya

Finally, I wonder what Woolhouse thinks of the behavior of top scientific bureaucrats, politicians, and the media smearing and deplatforming me, @MartinKulldorff, @SunetraGupta and so many others. Should we not have had this discussion without prejudice in 2020? 5/5

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And even the Guardian were on board then - amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun

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Jay Bhattacharya

@DrJBhattacharya

Replying to @T_Brautigan

We wrote the @gbdeclaration in october 2020 because we knew there would be a winter wave, and we pointed out lockdown harms in some detail in the interviews and debates that followed. We called for focused protection of vulnerable people, not 'let it rip'. If this was your… Show more

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6. The notion that lockdowns worked to stop spread of infection does not resist scrutiny at present although they may have offered focused protection.

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5. The apparent “mildness’ of Omicron is most likely to due to most people having acquired immunity against severe disease by then due to exposure or vaccination and not an intrinsic property of the virus population itself. twitter.com/SunetraGupta/s…

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John Bird is one of my heroes - first came to know of him on Radio 3 speaking with eloquence and passion about how classical music transformed his life - underscoring how much we owe it to underprivileged children to give them an education in the Arts

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@thelucyjohnston

Lockdown will trigger homelessness tsunami 225,000 face eviction “We’re in the midst of a perfect storm - rising energy costs, universal credit cut, end of furlough, lockdown job losses... I am very very worried.” Watch the podcast with John Bird: patreon.com/sketchnoteson

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Thank you, Molly - and keep up the good work!

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@lensiseethrough

Replying to @karamballes

We were honoured that @SunetraGupta and @DrJBhattacharya contributed, along with many others, to The Children’s Inquiry. They are two of the most inspiring souls I’ve ever met. The abuse they faced, and its awful consequences, will be recalled as one of history’s great tragedies.

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5. The apparent “mildness’ of Omicron is most likely to due to most people having acquired immunity against severe disease by then due to exposure or vaccination and not an intrinsic property of the virus population itself.

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Replying to @SunetraGupta

3. We were not in a position to evaluate the IFR in March 2020, although the skew in age was obvious - seroprevalence studies (which I put my money on – and, yes, I was wrong!) did not provide a clear indication of the level of exposure in a community

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These are the points they will need to consider: 2. When I said that the epidemic was on its way out, I did not mean there wouldn’t be a second wave – why would I have risked so much to suggest a way of dealing with a resurgence if I thought it had just gone away?

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1. To my mind, the only coherent explanation for the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in most global settings is that it played out as a classic coronavirus (SIRS with seasonality), with the first peak occurring in many regions before March 2020 twitter.com/SunetraGupta/s…

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collateralglobal.org

CG BLOG - Ellen Townsend: Why I got involved in Collateral Global - Collateral Global

"Two words really: my children."

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4. Clearly more elderly and otherwise vulnerable people died than I expected in the UK and we should be asking why this happened but that does not mean the IFR is 0.9

Quote Tweet

Replying to @SunetraGupta

3. We were not in a position to evaluate the IFR in March 2020, although the skew in age was obvious - seroprevalence studies (which I put my money on – and, yes, I was wrong!) did not provide a clear indication of the level of exposure in a community

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A crisis to worsen all crises: living with lockdowns in the Global South. - Collateral Global

collateralglobal.org

A crisis to worsen all crises: living with lockdowns in the Global South. - Collateral Global

In this episode Reva Yunus and Aleida Borges talk about the gendered aspects of a very ‘punitive’ pandemic response, especially in the Global South. Dr Aleida Mendes Borges also talks about the book,...

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The ethics of the Omicron travel ban | The Spectator

spectator.co.uk

The ethics of the Omicron travel ban

The Omicron variant had not even been named when the government’s reflexes sprung into almost involuntary reaction last month, and it introduced yet more Covid restrictions. The ‘red list’ was...

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We are looking for an immunologist (highly motivated and independent, of course) to join our universal flu vaccine programme:

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Job Details my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecruit

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As you must know I have great respect for your opinions, but I would maintain that it is human dignity we hold onto - as Oedipus and the great tragedies affirm - rather than bodily autonomy

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If it makes any difference at all, I cannot think of anyone whose tweets I look forward to reading more than yours. I’ve also found quite useful, in my darker moments, to remember that Rilke accused us of being wasters of sorrows.

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A Covid retrospective | The Spectator Australia

spectator.com.au

A Covid retrospective | The Spectator Australia

Two years ago, I and a small group of multi-disciplinary New Zealand-based academics published our Covid Plan B. The plan was borne out of our unease at the prevailing Covid narrative and the New…

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Just to be clear, I am addressing Danny Altmann here

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So disappointing to have to battle this out in the media rather than through a phonecall, Danny, but here are some explainers on what herd immunity actually means and how it is independent of the rate of loss of immunity collateralglobal.org/article/how-se collateralglobal.org/article/mini-l

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Excellent piece by Kunal Purohit

India's lost lockdown generation

The world's largest democracy has sacrificed its future

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With due respect, when I took up my pen to sign the GBD, I thinking of of the millions who would die of poverty and neglect rather than those who might suffer from the withdrawal of bodily autonomy

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With due respect, when I took up my pen to sign the GBD what I thinking of of the millions who would die of poverty and neglect rather than those whose who might suffer from the withdrawal of bodily autonomy twitter.com/SunetraGupta/s…

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It's time to fix the NHS's looming winter crisis | The Spectator

spectator.co.uk

It's time to fix the NHS's looming winter crisis

My patient has sepsis. The window for treatment is short; in less than an hour, he could die. In urgent care, the direct line to ambulance control bypasses 999: it lets the call handler know a doctor...

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But, unlike me, for whom the Koch bothers have installed an energy inefficient swimming pool in my back gardens, Owen can sleep at night twitter.com/LegoLas4494181

This Tweet is unavailable.

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None of us has the full skill set to determine what strategy was optimal but it should have been clear from the outset that lockdowns would cause more harm than good.

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Thanks, Petra!

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@LSHTM_Vaccines

In the first podcast in our series launched yesterday our own @petrakle speaks to @SunetraGupta in ‘Progress towards a universal flu vaccine: understanding the many 'hats' of the influenza virus’ #vaccineswork soundcloud.com/user-789387211

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Really looking forward to this - t.co/jEanP7k6w9

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Exactly

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3. We were not in a position to evaluate the IFR in March 2020, although the skew in age was obvious - seroprevalence studies (which I put my money on – and, yes, I was wrong!) did not provide a clear indication of the level of exposure in a community

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So glad to see this go into 2nd ed - with the perfect subtitle

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@battleforeurope and I excited to announce the coauthored 2nd edition of The Covid Consensus with new subtitle: The Global Assault on Democracy and the Poor -- a Critique from the Left: hurstpublishers.com/catalogues/aut (p40) Tks as always @MikeDwyerMike

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Very good point. The first consideration is if it is logical. The second - which is more delicate - is whether it is ethical. This is the framework within which to place our desire for individual liberty.

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Please watch

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This is an important film by @kunalpurohit and Abeer Khan. These stories humanise this appalling tragedy. twitter.com/collateralglbl…

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So can I expect an apology accompanied by a nice round of telegraph.co.uk/food-and-drink?

telegraph.co.uk

The best cheese in the world has been named… and it’s not French

In a vast room filled with runny, stinky, funky dairy products, an obscure goats cheese was voted the winner – how did it nab the top spot?

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What a wonderful surprise - thank you so much

@Womans_Place_UK

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Woman’s Place UK

@Womans_Place_UK

Today’s inspiration @SunetraGupta - scientist, novelist, writer/broadcaster, Oxford Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology #BlackHistoryMonth

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This is consistent (as you must know) with the behaviour of any disease with a short period of infection

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For those who were burned - The Covid Stories WebApp of Collateral Global - Collateral Global

collateralglobal.org

For those who were burned - The Covid Stories WebApp of Collateral Global - Collateral Global

Traumatic times in human experience are often best understood, across cultures, through the sharing of stories. I have a few personal ones to tell from the Covid restrictions. First, I was furious...

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Please also watch their film:

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Collateral Global Charity

@collateralglbl

"This film, by Kunal Purohit and Abeer Khan for Collateral Global, cuts to the heart of CG’s research agenda: understanding the enormity of the harms which lockdowns brought about among vulnerable populations in the Global South." The Children of Nowhere: loom.ly/9fCn5RU

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I think my time on Twitter is over but I will miss you. Feel free to stay in touch and we would love you to visit.

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Retweeted!

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It’s been a wonderful journey together, Caroline ❤️ t.co/pHBu3smLWr

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'The type of person who makes the world work': remembering Anthony Smith | The Spectator spectator.co.uk/article/the-ty

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How we will miss you!

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Princeton University

We are saddened to hear of the sudden passing of professor emeritus Henry Horn. Dan Rubenstein, director of the program in environmental studies, says of Horn, "He was the rock of the department and his absence is going to be very hard to accept."

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How absolutely wonderful

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I did a home recording for the first time today - ‘purano sei diner katha’, Tagore’s lovely reimagining of ‘Auld Lang Syne’. I recorded it on my iPhone and it has no enhancements or edits. It’s an informal offering, and I apologise for glitches or lapses: youtu.be/0uXNEzKsKqM

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Congratulations, Dr. Jungseok Lee!

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We did some of the early studies as well - eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280 pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33094717/0-791 Why is it not possible to have a civilised discussion about this?

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence, titres and neutralising activity in an antenatal cohort, United...

SARS-CoV-2 IgG screening of 1,000 antenatal serum samples in the Oxford area, United Kingdom, between 14 April and 15 June 2020, yielded a 5.3% seroprevalence, mirroring contemporaneous regional...

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Keep going - you are extraordinary

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The credit here should go to Craig Thompson

for going beyond simply testing the predictions of our model to developing a pipeline for identifying antigenic targets for a universal influenza vaccine

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Oxford University Innovation

Why don't we yet have a universal flu vaccine and how can we fix that? Professor @SunetraGupta from @UniofOxford's @OxZooDept writes in Nature about her latest research into influenza, which OUI is helping get into the wider world. naturemicrobiologycommunity.nature.com/users/175433-s

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Congratulations, Dr Hawkins

!

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The credit here should go to Craig Thompson

for finding the less variable targets of immunity as predicted by our mathematical models

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Merton College, Oxford

The team's lead researcher, Professor @SunetraGupta, is a Supernumerary Fellow of the College. twitter.com/DailyMirror/st

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Prizes can be divisive if we think only in terms of rewarding an individual, so perhaps we should focus more on the message sent to society.

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BBC Woman's Hour

At 10: Professor @SunetraGupta on which female scientist of the last 70 years has made the biggest impact on women’s lives? #whpowerlist

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There is absolutely no reason to invoke lockdowns (voluntary or otherwise) to explain the patterns observed - a simple SIRS model with seasonality will faithfully reproduce them (Epi 101)

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Thank you - it was a lot of fun!

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Paul Martin - TV Presenter and Author

@paulm_presenter

Only a couple of weeks until the #BBC Countryfile Winter Diaries is back on @BBCOne for half term week. Such an interesting day spent with you @OxZooDept @SunetraGupta for #countryfilewinterdiaries Thank you! t.co/oMoWN3nyBR

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“Ought not these oldest sufferings of ours be yielding fruit by now?” twitter.com/SunetraGupta/s

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Ok - let's build up in stages, starting with whether an SIRS with seasonality can explain why the first wave would have been curtailed at different levels of proportion immune. Here's why I would say yes -

collateralglobal.org

CG Mini-Lectures: How seasonality affects the spread of a new virus - Collateral Global

Professor Sunetra Gupta explains the concept of herd immunity threshold and how seasonality affects the way a virus spreads.

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All credit her to Craig Thompson

who transformed a theoretical project into something way beyond what he was contracted to do!

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It is this disjunction between reducing individual risk (which is completely feasible) and stopping spread at a population level (which is not) that is confusing everyone.

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Job Details my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecruit

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Please apply! my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecruit

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It has a big (although transient) effect on endemic diseases (as we saw) but hardly any effect on the dynamics of a newly introduced pathogen. Think of the potential energy of the system as the difference between the proportion immune and the herd immunity threshold.

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Congratulations, Dr.

@carinnahockham

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Thank you for this, Lucy xxx

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Thank you, Thomas. I completely agree. And very much appreciate this discussion.

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The time of arrival is critical here and can explain regional variation very simply -

collateralglobal.org

CG Mini-Lectures: How seasonality affects the spread of a new virus - Collateral Global

Professor Sunetra Gupta explains the concept of herd immunity threshold and how seasonality affects the way a virus spreads.

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Between Khayal and O Sole Mio - A World Premiere

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It was a great honour! And such a wonderful evening - thank you so much.

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A great memento from the very talented Alex of a wonderful meeting

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Sunetra Gupta on the evolution and maintenance of pathogen population structure under immune selection #ISEEC17

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