A thoughtful effort to anticipate key themes in the 2020s. Unfortunately, its first falsifiable forecast is false. People often over-predict change (e.g., Ch. 2, Expert Political Judgment). One reason: we get more credit for correctly predicting change than the boring status quohttps://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1210931176212516864 …
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
Most things keep on keeping on (most of the time). The main change in my daily life between 2000 and 2010 and 2020 is that my computer screen has grown from 15" to 24" to ... 43".
03:30 - 29. pro 2019.
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The one certainty is that things will change more than we tend to assume.