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Steve_Sailer's profile
Steve Sailer
Steve Sailer
Steve Sailer
@Steve_Sailer

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Steve Sailer

@Steve_Sailer

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unz.com/isteve
Joined October 2010

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    Steve Sailer‏ @Steve_Sailer Sep 17

    Steve Sailer Retweeted Damon Linker

    Kavanaugh became a national figure in 2011 when he cast dissenting vote in Obamacare appeals court case. He was talked up as a Supreme Court nominee from early 2012. The accuser, although she can't remember year or place, started using his name in 2012 after he'd become famous.https://twitter.com/DamonLinker/status/1041888181778571264 …

    Steve Sailer added,

    Damon LinkerVerified account @DamonLinker
    Replying to @stevenfhayward
    Those were in-the-moment examples. You think this woman, living an entirely different life from 36 years ago, sees BK getting nominated and thinks, "You know, I lived near him as a kid, so I can plausibly lie that he attacked me ad scuttle his nomination"? Seriously, Steve?
    8:20 PM - 17 Sep 2018
    • 100 Retweets
    • 263 Likes
    • That Danny Kelly CaesarSalad ALL CAPS BOSS Pater De Felibus 🐈🇺🇸 Istvan Lorag Roger Cheeto Rick Bobbens Roccam's Occam You can't teach a goat to whistle
    14 replies 100 retweets 263 likes
      1. Steve Sailer‏ @Steve_Sailer Sep 17

        Kavanaugh's name was in the national news as of 11/8/2011 when he was on losing side of huge 2-1 Appeals Court decision upholding Obamacare: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-healthcare-court/appeals-court-backs-obama-healthcare-law-idUSTRE7A74PO20111108 … Accuser's husband said she first mentioned Kavanaugh's name in 2012 (but it doesn't appear in therapist notes).

        9 replies 15 retweets 47 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Derek‏ @PereGrimmer Sep 17
        Replying to @Steve_Sailer

        She didn't use his name in the 2012 therapy session, per the WaPo account. But it's true she apparently did not begin using it until he got famous.

        1 reply 2 retweets 11 likes
      3. Derek‏ @PereGrimmer Sep 17
        Replying to @PereGrimmer @Steve_Sailer

        Derek Retweeted Derek

        Worth adding that there's a point in the piece where her husband says she feared Kav would be on the Supreme Court. My read through of the initial story is here:https://twitter.com/PereGrimmer/status/1041388625584422912?s=19 …

        Derek added,

        Derek @PereGrimmer
        Hmmmmm. pic.twitter.com/zLSyZYzEA1
        Show this thread
        1 reply 8 retweets 20 likes
      4. Tweet unavailable
      5. Steve Sailer‏ @Steve_Sailer Sep 18
        Replying to @TaeilEatsBacon @PereGrimmer

        My impression is that the polygraph is basically a scary prop to help intimidate people into cracking under tough questioning. If it were real, you'd hear about advances due to better electronics or new data analyses. But it just seems unchanged from 1935.

        4 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      6. James R Williamson‏ @jrwill9 Sep 18
        Replying to @Steve_Sailer @TaeilEatsBacon @PereGrimmer

        Sensors for measuring electrical signals from skin (EEG, ECG, GSR, EMG) have been pretty static for decades, other than miniaturization. Even the basic analysis techniques haven’t changed much. So I don’t think this is unique to lie detection.

        2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      7. James R Williamson‏ @jrwill9 Sep 18
        Replying to @jrwill9 @Steve_Sailer and

        The idea behind polygraphs: establish a baseline and look for deviations due to stress; measuring stress from sweat (GSR), HR and BR, sounds reasonable from first principles. Intersubject variability is probably the biggest obstacle.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      8. Derek‏ @PereGrimmer Sep 18
        Replying to @jrwill9 @Steve_Sailer @TaeilEatsBacon

        Did you look at the article I cited? There is no theoretical construct uniquely linking lying to ANS activation, or differentiating lies from other anxiety sources, and there is no known way to do an adversarial probe. (I can do a Tweet-thread on the evidence if you'd like.)

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      9. James R Williamson‏ @jrwill9 Sep 18
        Replying to @PereGrimmer @Steve_Sailer @TaeilEatsBacon

        I'll have to read it later. I did see in one of the abstracts you cited that while they knocked down exaggerated effect size claims, there still remained small to moderate effect sizes, which would be consistent with moderate accuracy. But I am curious and want to read more.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      10. 2 more replies
      1. Austin Newsom‏ @AustinNewsom11 Sep 17
        Replying to @Steve_Sailer

        People behave in inscrutable ways daily. If incentives and desires were always obvious, we would all be much better at predicting the behavior of our fellow humans. Damon clearly lacks imagination.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. Nine-Banded Books‏ @NineBandedBooks Sep 17
        Replying to @Steve_Sailer

        It could not be true and also not be a lie. Memory is full of tricks, and a bit of gap-filling shaped through therapeutic suggestion and a broader external narrative is not without precedent.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. You can't teach a goat to whistle‏ @ZbraPntedDonky Sep 17
        Replying to @Steve_Sailer

        Why does Linker think his scenario is not plausible? There's nothing inherent in the situation to prevent her from inventing a story to derail his nomination.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. West Coast Whites‏ @Westcoastwhites Sep 17
        Replying to @Steve_Sailer

        Bingo!

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Uncle FreddieT‏ @HolbrookHorizon Sep 17
        Replying to @Steve_Sailer

        Likely retrofit as this gives repeat of victim as origin durin marr couns Visiting same area 8 years apart with diff partners convinced I'd been in 1place with partnerA but exam of digital foto timing showed must hav been partnerB U can work yr own imagination into event in30+

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Not the Midwest‏ @notthemidwest Sep 17
        Replying to @Steve_Sailer

        started using his name in 2018*

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Jerome Paternity Court‏ @propane_mann Sep 18
        Replying to @Steve_Sailer

        democrat women never liepic.twitter.com/HzInf4FDNa

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. epobirs‏ @epobirs Sep 17
        Replying to @Steve_Sailer

        Also, her parents' mid-90s legal troubles in a case presided over by Kavanaugh's mother may have served to keep recollection of the acquaintance going.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. SaintVitriol‏ @SaintVitriol Sep 17
        Replying to @Steve_Sailer

        This chick is looking Jackie Coakley crazy.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. David Pinsen‏ @dpinsen Sep 17
        Replying to @Steve_Sailer

        @CaitlinPacific believes her though.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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