"Africa is on the verge of an unprecedented population explosion." Africa cannot count on a demographic dividend https://www.ft.com/content/dc49d2f8-9fe3-11e8-85da-eeb7a9ce36e4 … via @financialtimes cc. @Steve_Sailer
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Lol - FT head in sand re: why African fertility rates remain "stubbornly high" at 5 per woman: "This is unlikely to be “cultural”. <-- reporter just makes assertion, zero evidence. What else could it be besides cultural/genetic?
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Replying to @randomuserbr @hbdchick and
Hard to see how. Many children are expensive. We see birth rates falling in every other area of similar economic development except Africa, so high birthrate must be something unique about Africans.
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Replying to @DauphinThe @hbdchick and
I'm no expert, but I'm familiar with the transition from high to low fertility here in Brazil, at least in the community I've come from. Economic development (from mostly rural to mostly urban), education and/or weaker religiosity abruptly changed the fertility rate.
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Replying to @randomuserbr @DauphinThe and
Each of my parents have six siblings, but not even one of those have more than three kids. Most of them have two, some have one or none. So here we went from high to low fertility in a single generation, in which there was clearly an economic disruption.
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But "demographic momentum" means that the population keeps increasing for about 40-50 years after the Total Fertility Rate drops to replacement. If your grandparents had 6 kids, and each kid had 2 kids, your grandparents would up with 12 grandkids, 3x the replacement rate.
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Replying to @Steve_Sailer @randomuserbr and
Demographic Momentum means that if sub-Saharan Africa drops from 5 babies per woman to 2 babies per woman (replacement rate fertility) tomorrow, its population doesn't stop growing until the 2060s.
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