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Where things stand now: *Still waiting on the remaining 10 precincts from Allegheny - should be a small (maybe ~500) batch. * Roughly 8,000 mail ballots scattered across the state * Perhaps 200-300 overseas/military ballots # * Up to 2,000 provisionals - and likely fewerhttps://twitter.com/stevekornacki/status/1527670605708926976 …
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And again, there remain some uncounted mail ballots scattered across the state, although McCormick’s mail vote edge was less pronounced yesterday than it had been with earlier mail reporters. Overall, race remains on target to finish well within automatic recount territory.
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McCormick had been expecting to gain on Oz with the remaining Allegheny votes. There are still 10 precincts left to report, so he could do better with those, but this new report is good news for Oz.
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We just got a long-awaited vote update from Allegheny County, where 21 of the 31 precincts that weren’t tallied on Election nigh were just reported out, 809 votes total: Oz 316 McCormick 288 This bumps Oz statewide lead to 1,115. Significant b/c Allegheny is McCormick’s base.
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And a batch of ~200 votes from Philadelphia has come in, with Oz getting 105 and McCormick 29. This extends Oz's statewide lead to 1,316 votes.
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Also worth noting that the candidate who trails after the initial count is complete can decline the automatic recount. This has happened several times since PA's recount law went into effect in 2004.
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Again, though, wherever the initial count lands won't be known until next next week. And the margin is all but certain to be well within the 0.5% threshold that will trigger a recount.
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...Oz could pad his lead with the Philly votes, and if he does even slightly better with the remaining mail ballots than he's been doing -- or if it turns out there's just fewer of them than we're now estimating -- he'll finish in first, maybe even by a comfortable-ish margin.
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This will all play out in slow motion into next week. It is possible that with a strong performance with the remaining mail ballots and the Allegheny votes, McCormick could *just* catch Oz in the tally. But also...
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...McCormick continues to outpace Oz in the mail vote; 17k were counted yesterday and McCormick won them at a 32-25% clip. - There will also be a small (maybe 2,000) pool of provisional ballots and an even smaller number of military ballots.
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- Some precincts in Philadelphia have also yet to report their election Day vote. This should amount to ~900 total GOP votes and Oz has been beating McCormick by double-digits in the Election Day vote in Philly. - Between 10k-15k uncounted mail ballots from across the state....
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What we think is left to be counted: - 31 precincts in Allegheny County due to technical issues. This should amount to 1,500-2,000 total GOP votes a& hey aren't likely to be counted until next week. This is McCormick's base & he's been beating Oz 39-33 in Election Day votes here.
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PA update: Oz leads McCormick by 1,241 votes (0.1%). It is inevitable that this will land in mandatory recount territory - a process that won't begin until next week and could stretch into June. But it's not clear who will be leading and by how much when the recount begins...
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Positive sign for Oz here: Erie County just reported out a new batch of mail ballots. Yesterday, McCormick had been leading the Erie mail vote 35-22 over Oz. This new batch, though, is 29-27% McCormick. A sign that Oz might be performing better with late-arriving mail ballots?
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Looks like a batch of mail votes from Chester County outside Philly was just released: McCormick leads Oz 34-19% and nets 135 votes vs. Oz from them. This is the pattern he needs across the state as mail votes get added in today.
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Breakdown by county of estimated uncounted GOP mail-in ballots, updated for what was received yesterday:pic.twitter.com/HlAUd28YGz
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Also keep in mind, you may see on here many huge-sounding numbers of uncounted mail ballots from various counties -- often these are the *total* number of mail ballots for a county, and the vast majority of them will be Dem ballots. Mail ballots are used *far* less by GOP voters.
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1) We don't know if the late-arriving mail ballots (Montgomery got 1,051 yesterday) will be more Oz-friendly 2) The biggest stash of uncounted GOP mail ballots is 5,172 in Lancaster County, one of the very few counties where Oz is already running ahead of McCormick w/ mail
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Some more clarity: PA has updated the number of uncounted mail ballots to account for what counties received yesterday. There are now appx. 32,000 statewide. McCormick has been leading the mail vote by 9 points and if he won these at the same rate, he'd net ~3,000 votes, but...https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1526899074309533697 …
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As mentioned in a previous thread, Allegheny County appears to have the most outstanding Election Day precincts/votes and looms large in settling the Oz/McCormick race. This is the message currently on its Board of Elections site:pic.twitter.com/ehFGckXMi3
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