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Prikvačeni tweet
I feel guilty promoting my book so much here, but it's the product of many years of (fun!) work and I really hope you'll check it out. It's in stores on Oct. 2, but honestly, preorders are extremely helpful and I'd be grateful if you order one here now:https://www.harpercollins.com/9780062438980/the-red-and-the-blue/ …
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A muddled Iowa, crowded NH, rising Buttigieg, steady Sanders, fading Biden, and a looming Bloomberg: the ingredients for the brokered convention that's rumored every four years, never ever happens, still probably won't this year, but...maybe?https://nypost.com/2020/02/04/iowa-caucus-mess-nothing-compared-to-intra-democratic-chaos-on-the-horizon/?utm_campaign=iosapp&utm_source=mail_app …
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On Morning Joe,
@WillieGeist asks Pete Buttigieg about the basis for his victory declaration: "We were looking at the internal numbers that we had and beginning to realize that something extraordinary had happened"Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Iowa's outsize role has faced attacks for decades, along with periodic failed attempts by other states to take the first-in-the-nation slot. But criticism has been louder than ever this past year, and now those critics may have the ammunition they need to kill it.
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There may be a parallel to 1988 here -- the last time the winner of a contested IA race didn't go on to win the Dem nomination. Back then, the IA result did little to winnow and clarify a crowded Dem field. Ended up coming the closest to a contested convention in my lifetime.
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On call now, Iowa Dems read brief statement saying they will provide results “later today.” Nothing specific, no questions, call ends.
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You can now put me down as contested convention curious
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I guess the inspiration for Buttigieg here is Bill Clinton, with barely any votes counted, declaring that the results of the 1992 NH primary, which he would end up losing by 8 points, had made him “the comeback kid”
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The official results as Pete Buttigieg declares himself victorious in Iowa:pic.twitter.com/isUMd4lxgM
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Maybe this ends up like 1992 where Iowa happened but didn’t mean anything and NH ends up mattering more
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Per
@MauraBarrettNBC from the Iowa Dem Party:pic.twitter.com/xnjmeeUtRb
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Maybe it will end up being New Hampshire that affects the Iowa result...
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Another batch just came in. 17-29 is up to 23% now. Sanders leads with 47%. 65+ is down to 28% -- Biden leading with 34%.
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In '16, 17-29 year olds -- Sanders best group -- accounted for 18% of the IA Dem electorate. In the entrance poll, they account for 21% right now. 65+ -- Biden's best group -- were 28% in '16. 30% now -- but dropping with each new wave of data. More still to come...
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Doors have closed and NBC characterizes the race as too early to call. The entrance poll shows Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren vying for first place.
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Our live coverage of the Iowa caucuses starts now. Results will start flowing in a little after 8 Eastern. Meaning I have a little more time to cram...pic.twitter.com/nfwgiVFd69
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The 8 red counties: Winniehiek (Luther College): Sanders +12 in '16 Johnson (Iowa City): Sanders +20 Poweshiek (Grinnell): Sanders +6 Jefferson (Maharishi U): Sanders +45 Story (Iowa State): Sanders +20 Polk (Des Moines): Clinton +7 Davis: Clinton +16 Audubon: Clinton +24
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This map shows the difference between the share of statewide turnout that each IA county accounted for in the '16 caucuses and the share of state delegate equivalents it is allocated tonight "+" means SDE share is higher than the turnout share Red = higher turnout share than SDEpic.twitter.com/KWUqKDIQJp
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*MORE confusion, although if I'd been covering it back then it would have caused me confusion too I'm sure
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That said, the other big miss on here - 1988 - could be relevant tonight. Gephardt won, but it was tight and the counting was slow (and never actually completed!) and the race still wasn’t called the AM after. Iowa ended up resulting in my confusion than clarity in '88.
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If anything, this may undersell IA's track record. The '92 miss in meaningless - the rest of the field skipped IA that year and conceded it to Harkin. And while Muskie was the top-finisher in '72, the media judged the real winner to be McGovern, who did become the nominee.
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