Considering Taleb constructed a strawman mathematical argument (claiming that IQ researchers claim near 100% mathematic predictive ability of IQ measurement), I would say Taleb's argument lacks both mathematics and honesty. The researchers make no such claims.
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He makes several mistakes such as conflating 'high' IQ with academics. The average IQ of academics is somewhere around 125-130 which is only decent. A lot of his base assumptions are wrong which leads him to bad conclusions.
End of conversation
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you’ve rationalized why there is not right tail correlation but it doesn’t change that there is not right tail correlation. and don’t the reasons you give (lack of social skills, free will, optionality, etc) actually reinforce Taleb’s point regarding non-predictive power?
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You know what else that tweet wasn't? A leather shoe, a cheese burger, or an asteroid. I believe that IQ points to something valid and meaningful even if imperfectly but seriously your response here is embarrassing.
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I don't think that's an argument so much as it is an observation.
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