People engaging in correct Bayesian reasoning FTW!https://twitter.com/StefanFSchubert/status/1032668642054479874 …
Study finds that people infer preferences from forecasts: if a forecaster predicts an outcome, people infer that the forecaster prefers this outcome. This matches previous findings saying that forecasts are in fact often guided by preferences. http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1948550618789607 …pic.twitter.com/jI2Tz9t2m6
-
-
-
I wonder if people tend to accurately update toward suppressing this assumed correlation for forecasters who have demonstrated more of a concern for forecast accuracy than for using forecasts for social signaling.
-
Forecasters demonstrate concern for signalling dedication to forecasting accuracy, which functions as a different sort of social signal. Viewers would need to account for the second-order signalling. Perhaps they can, but it gets very mentally taxing, so heuristics often win.
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
It has long been my experience that many forecasters predict what they want to happen rather than what they think really will happen.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
"But that is not my doing. I merely foretell."---Saruman
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Sort of a self fulfilling prophecy?
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.