Indeed, why does anybody listen to this Fund guy...
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Because statisticians have convinced everyone that correlation-fishing is a substitute for science, and that the chronic replication crises will be fixed by fancier, non-valid, non-empirical fishing methods.
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I'm finding it extremely difficult to believe anyone predicted any substantial number of people would die during the 2001 foot-and-mouth epizootic, and even more difficult to believe that anything close to 200 people died. Is it possible Fund has gotten his outbreaks confused?
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Because animal FMD doesn't really kill humans. Afaict, Fund is misrepresenting Ferguson's statements re. vCJD as well: https://www.nature.com/articles/nature709/ …—50k deaths by 2080 is estimate for worst case scenario w/out interventions, rising to 150k if sheep also prominent vector for human inf.
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Maybe becuase his institution is financed by a famous computer vendor?
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University reputation is a big factor!
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We need a trusted advisor certification for the media ; ) “When Ferguson was in the news a few months ago, why wasn’t there more discussion of his atrocious track record? Or was his track record not so bad?”
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I'm pretty confused about why Fund thought this would be evidence. Here's the structure of the argument so far: For i from 1 to 5: (In X_i year, Ferguson predicted an upper bound of Y_i people will die. Less than Y_i people died}. Thus Ferguson is WRONG!!11!!!
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This is definitely the sign of a serious article
pic.twitter.com/4XJNvTmKY6
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Yeah, in the comments one addresses that regarding mad cows he said 50 to 50000. So basically is this option. Unless proven otherwise.
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