But this is really your best quote: “ In general I’ll have more trust in a study from the state health department than from some Stanford professors.”
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Ioanidis wanted an unorthodox thesis proven to make a mark in the most consequential crisis of our time. They will massage the data in whatever ways for the glory - look at the troubling steps Bendavid and Bhattacharya employed during this episode (survey process and w/ WSJ)
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It was very irresponsible of them to release these findings without a way for anyone to look at them. Any result, no matter how "preliminary" is declared by the press to be gold standard 100% proof.
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Very glad to see my instincts were similar to yours -- my neural net is training. Also wondering what other experts have to say on the new NY study:
@balajis@EricTopol@NAChristakis@robertwiblin. Does it in any way update your priors wrt the earlier LA & Santa Clara studies? -
Perhaps not, with this very simple math: the Bay Area reports 200 deaths / 7M population. With 0.5% fatality to infection rate, that gives a 0.6% prevalence.
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Why is everyone focused on the CFR and not LT implications to healthy/younger infected pts? How come there is never any citation of Iran for the truest form of adopting the herd immunity thesis.
@tkinfo7https://twitter.com/sehrlangsam2/status/1254412007136256006?s=21 …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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"I’ll have more trust in a study from the state health department than from some Stanford professors." I get your point, but the elements of your critique of the CA studies that resonated most was in population sampling & extrapolation to general pop. No way they did better there
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On the collection side it clearly over samples people who were healthy, wealthy, and young enough to go to grocery stores, and then extrapolating 3,000 samples into generalized predictions for 20 million New Yorkers seems... non-trivial.
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