Humans are involved so nothing is 100% random or independent. Hot hand is still virtually not actionable. It exists but the degree to which it exists is low and our ability to identify it in real actionable time is almost non existent.
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And therefore, recent revisionism notwithstanding, the HH is indeed a fallacy, in the sense that public perception of streaks’ predictive importance vastly exceeds the reality.
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"We have a body of research that suggests that even slight cues in the environment can change our actions.Words associated with old people can slow us down..." - aren't these exactly the kind of priming results currently being challenged by the replication movement in psychology?
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Andrew tends to say no effects are zero. I think he would probably agree these effects are overestimated and not likely to reproduce. But I think he would also think they exist, they're just small, complicated, and variable.
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So was the prior consensus that there is no such thing as streaks in any context? Is this only confirmed for athletics or is the "gambler's streak" also potentially true now?
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