Coin-tossing doesn't exhibit sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Jesus.https://twitter.com/Sam_Dumitriu/status/996015183582715905 …
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Replying to @St_Rev
That's not the point of the metaphor. The average of many results of a function with a random element is easier to predict then the average of few results. That goes whether or not there is also a non-random element.
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Replying to @cryptarchist @St_Rev
this is true, but using the prediction of an exhaustively characterized purely-independent system as a metaphor for the prediction of a very-little-understood multiple-feedback system with 10^30 bits in it is inherently dishonest to begin with
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Replying to @ded_ruckus @cryptarchist
Yes, it's a very poor analogy for many reasons.
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Replying to @St_Rev @ded_ruckus
It's not intended as a general analogy, but just to refute a specific point, and it does.
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Replying to @cryptarchist @St_Rev
the question of whether the climate shows enough long-term regularities to be predicted despite weather's chaotic nature is exactly what's under dispute. it wasn't refuting anything, it was just asserting the opposite case to Kirk's assertion.
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Ah, I see. I confess I didn't look that far down the chain, bc 'charliekirk' "oh I don't need to read that"
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.