This isn't climate change. This is ordinary weather striking random parts of _the continent of North America_, which is _extremely large_.
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Replying to @St_Rev
And/or climate change is increasing the likelihood of previously-rare freak weather events
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Replying to @hikikomorphism
Not happening. Hurricane frequency is actually down pretty sharply in recent years.
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Replying to @St_Rev
I'm not just talking about hurricanes, a few years back Boston had a winter that broke all recorded snowfall records. More outliers recently
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Replying to @hikikomorphism
Multiply the number of major metroplexes in the US by the number of extreme weather events that can happen to them.
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Replying to @St_Rev
seems like you'd need a dataset of weather events to actually do this. Any suggestions? I'd rather not skim wikipedia and estimate.
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Replying to @hikikomorphism
Just as a fermi calculation: say there are 50 major metropolitan areas in the US, and 4 extremes that can happen a year.
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Replying to @St_Rev @hikikomorphism
Extreme heat, extreme cold, disaster 1, disaster 2, where disaster = {earthquake, tornados, hurricane, flooding, volcano, etc.}
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Replying to @St_Rev @hikikomorphism
Then one expects two once-in-a-century events per year, and one once-in-a-millennium event every 5 years.
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Replying to @St_Rev
If the rate at which such events occur globally hasn't changed significantly over the last century then concern is likely overblown
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The only research I am aware of on the subject concluded that there is no upward trend in disaster intensity, only value at risk.
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Replying to @St_Rev @hikikomorphism
eg: weather damage trends are entirely driven by economic expansion in threatened zones like coastlines.
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.