FWIW, I think your points are fair but do not constitute a "debunk." The death rate and arbitrary end-point issues are totally legit critiqs
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Replying to @puckthecat1 @St_Rev and
The base rate issue is less persuasive. First, why is the base rate the key question? Plenty of significance to the absolute numbers
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Replying to @puckthecat1 @St_Rev and
Second, you're playing your own statistical games in your calculations, adjusting the pop to exaggerate your argument.
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If you mean the relative population figures, it's a low-quality Fermi estimate, but not gaming.
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Replying to @St_Rev @puckthecat1 and
Some points I raise should have been presented _alongside_ the ones NYT used. That's one set of issues. Base rate & absolute both matter.
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Replying to @St_Rev @puckthecat1 and
Other points go to the validity or lack thereof of the underlying data set--like saying 'since 9/11' when they mean 'since 9/12'.
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I agree that it's a more complete picture with your numbers. But I think calling that a "debunking" just misunderstands how advocacy works.
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Replying to @puckthecat1 @St_Rev and
Making arguments using true facts and allowing others to respond with other true facts providing counterpoint/context isn't dishonest
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Their argument is a) misleading (spray of miscontextualized numbers) AND b) dishonest (mangled underlying data).
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Replying to @St_Rev @puckthecat1 and
And the mangled underlying dataset has popped up many times--first from New America in 2013 IIRC--and I've debunked it repeatedly.
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So have @uberfeminist, @Asherahresearch and others. NYT/WaPo/thinktanks keep repolishing & relaunching the turd. Gonna stick w/ "debunk".
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That's fine. But consider your debunking debunked.
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.