FWIW, I think your points are fair but do not constitute a "debunk." The death rate and arbitrary end-point issues are totally legit critiqs
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Replying to @puckthecat1 @St_Rev and
The base rate issue is less persuasive. First, why is the base rate the key question? Plenty of significance to the absolute numbers
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Replying to @puckthecat1 @St_Rev and
Second, you're playing your own statistical games in your calculations, adjusting the pop to exaggerate your argument.
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If you mean the relative population figures, it's a low-quality Fermi estimate, but not gaming.
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Replying to @St_Rev @puckthecat1 and
Some points I raise should have been presented _alongside_ the ones NYT used. That's one set of issues. Base rate & absolute both matter.
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Disagree on pop numbers because I think you're being glib with "everyone who voted for Trump."
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Replying to @puckthecat1
I was being deliberately glib. It was a joke, FFS. But 20% vs. 0.05% gives a 400:1 ratio.
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Replying to @St_Rev @puckthecat1
But their criterion for 'Far-Right Violent Extremist' is 'enormous number of people, 2%-20% of the pop' ∩ 'committed a crime'.
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Replying to @St_Rev @puckthecat1
If Islamist Terrorism is 'Islamist' ∩ 'committed a crime', then the base rate comparison has to be between '2-20% of pop' and 'Islamist'.
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Replying to @St_Rev @puckthecat1
Taking a high estimate for 'Islamist' of 0.05% (radicalization is far less popular in the US) and low estimate for 'far-right' you get 40:1.
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That is the underlying calculation I was running off, but: 140 characters.
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.