Then, *unless you have genuine secret knowledge* -- for example, you have an ancient book of prophecy that proves Donald = Lucifer -- 4/
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Replying to @St_Rev
...you should have zero confidence in your own belief that one candidate is better than the other. 5/
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Replying to @St_Rev
This is analogous to the Hayekian information argument about trying to beat the market, although there's no price signal in sight. 6/
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Replying to @St_Rev
Rather, politics acts as a giant swarm of runaway feedback loops generating anti-knowledge. The effect is similar: you don't know shit. 7/
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Replying to @St_Rev
I like the bullet you're biting here. But it demands a really inhuman/excessive level of epistemic humility.
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Replying to @simplic10 @St_Rev
And after all, inaction leads to some outcome too - possibly favouring one or another candidate.
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Replying to @simplic10 @St_Rev
Forget it's about voting, the situation is equivalent to "here peasant, choose our next dictator from these available choices".
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Replying to @simplic10 @St_Rev
It happens to be ineffective, but even if it wasn't, voting is still immoral.
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Replying to @GregM410 @simplic10
Yeah, I also strongly believe voting to be immoral--but I don't expect to persuade people of that!
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seems easier to persuade them of that, rather than of their radical ignorance of EV of candidates
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Sigh. Again, I was *specifically* critiquing the Nate Silver/SSC "you should vote even if the odds are 1/60M" argument.
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Their argument: "there's $300 BILLION at stake!" and my critique is "you're a god-damned fool if you believe that."
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.