Original argument here: https://twitter.com/St_Rev/status/781334763370082308 … My mistake was getting distracted by the N-counting argument. The real point is the EV. 2/
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Replying to @St_Rev
So: let's suppose you know with certainty that a vote, not counting yourself, will split 50-50. 3/
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Replying to @St_Rev
Then, *unless you have genuine secret knowledge* -- for example, you have an ancient book of prophecy that proves Donald = Lucifer -- 4/
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Replying to @St_Rev
...you should have zero confidence in your own belief that one candidate is better than the other. 5/
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Replying to @St_Rev
This is analogous to the Hayekian information argument about trying to beat the market, although there's no price signal in sight. 6/
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Replying to @St_Rev
Rather, politics acts as a giant swarm of runaway feedback loops generating anti-knowledge. The effect is similar: you don't know shit. 7/
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Replying to @St_Rev
I like the bullet you're biting here. But it demands a really inhuman/excessive level of epistemic humility.
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Replying to @simplic10 @St_Rev
And after all, inaction leads to some outcome too - possibly favouring one or another candidate.
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Replying to @simplic10 @St_Rev
Forget it's about voting, the situation is equivalent to "here peasant, choose our next dictator from these available choices".
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Replying to @simplic10 @St_Rev
I don't think there's a winning move at all there, but it's not *obvious* that doing nothing is best.
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Not voting means you can spend the afternoon with your kids or whatever instead. This is a small but 100% sure benefit.
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Replying to @St_Rev @simplic10
honestly my internal voting argument is along this axis: people get upset with you if you don't vs staying home is nice
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.