Let's be clear about which problem we're addressing. I have a two-pronged critique of the Nate Silver doctrine:
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Replying to @St_Rev @slatestarcodex
1) As framed, it fails bc you should have very low confidence in your beliefs about global welfare *if a vote is 50-50*.
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Replying to @St_Rev
~50% of US is creationist. I think it's possible for 50% to believe something, still feel strongly that it's trivially wrong.
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Replying to @slatestarcodex
The theory of evolution is relatively simple to understand. Most people who believe it nevertheless don't understand it.
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Replying to @St_Rev @slatestarcodex
But importantly, belief in it is irrelevant to almost every practical question unless you're a working biologist.
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Replying to @St_Rev @slatestarcodex
Which is why it works as a shibboleth. Now consider the weather.
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Replying to @St_Rev @slatestarcodex
People have a stake in true beliefs about the weather. We have a well-developed theory of the weather.
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Replying to @St_Rev @slatestarcodex
Knowing the weather in advance is worth billions. (Katrina did 1/8 trillion in damages). And yet...we can't do it well.
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Replying to @St_Rev @slatestarcodex
We can't predict much further forward than about a week, and probably never will.
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Replying to @St_Rev @slatestarcodex
The welfare of a country is like creationism, in that your beliefs are never going to matter much except as shibboleths...
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...and like the weather, in that it's nearly impossible to predict. This suggests that politics isn't about politics.
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Replying to @NorskHaus @slatestarcodex
Aside from professional sports, what else do we have?
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.