I'm specifically critiquing Nate Silver's argument for voting, as passed along in SSC's "vote for anyone but Trump" post.
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In short, they argue "your chance of swinging an election is between 1 in 10 million and 1 in 60 million, but what if..."
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"...*what if*, a Hillary future is worth $300 BILLION more than a Trump future???" And my critique is:
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"If the election actually splits exactly 50-50, you are probably vastly overconfident in your predictive abilities."
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If you invoke self-interest, then you're weighing your self-interest against a 1 in 10 million or 1 in 60 million lotto draw.
5:01 PM - 17 Oct 2016
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.