I'd go so far as to say there's huge uncertainty in the size of EV and small uncertainty in the sign, /1
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Replying to @random_eddie @St_Rev
and so yes, absolutely, we should be very skeptical of claims that a John Smith victory is an
$Xb public good. /21 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @random_eddie @St_Rev
And so yes, your new objection to the SSC voting calculus is well-founded, at least as revised/expanded here in our thread. Kudos./3
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Replying to @random_eddie @St_Rev
I would add that it's rational to vote anyway, although this gets a bit handwavy. Stipulate that voting is a very low-cost task /4
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Replying to @random_eddie @St_Rev
(I know this is often not true) Stipulate voting is epsilon-unlikely to affect the election outcome, because of winner-take-all. /5
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Replying to @random_eddie @St_Rev
Stipulate you believe Policy Set X is likely to have a positive EV, even if you are uncertain of the actual value. /6
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Replying to @random_eddie @St_Rev
Then you should vote for the candidate who most closely and obviously embraces Policy Set X, so as to increase the propensity /7
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Replying to @random_eddie @St_Rev
for candidates in FUTURE rounds to embrace those policies. While elections are winner-take-all, POLLING is not. Your effect /8
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Replying to @random_eddie @St_Rev
will be small, but larger than epsilon. If going to the polls is "too cheap to meter" then voting can be +EV /9
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Replying to @random_eddie @St_Rev
even given the massive uncertainties inherent in the analysis. /f
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Price your time. There's no honest way to value a vote at more than pennies.
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.