I'm obsessed with the meta problems of how people form and act on political beliefs. It's a hobby.
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Replying to @St_Rev @slatestarcodex
I do not vote, and believe political action to be fundamentally immoral.
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Replying to @St_Rev
I'm not sure how you can claim both a political efficient market hypothesis, and criticize some people for hurting others needlessly
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Replying to @slatestarcodex @St_Rev
It sounds like you think you have more than zero information about whether that's a good idea.
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Replying to @slatestarcodex
Let's be clear about which problem we're addressing. I have a two-pronged critique of the Nate Silver doctrine:
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Replying to @St_Rev @slatestarcodex
1) As framed, it fails bc you should have very low confidence in your beliefs about global welfare *if a vote is 50-50*.
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Replying to @St_Rev @slatestarcodex
2) If you punt to a calculation on local welfare, you don't get a $300B denominator to offset 1/60M odds.
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Replying to @St_Rev @slatestarcodex
You might know, with some reliability, that Hillary's worth $1M to you personally. Expected value still < 2 cents.
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Replying to @St_Rev @slatestarcodex
This is all an entirely separate matter from my claim that voting is itself immoral, which I am not pretending to justify.
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Replying to @St_Rev @slatestarcodex
St. Rev ☯️ 🏴 😻 Retweeted Scott Alexander
https://twitter.com/slatestarcodex/status/788119722340548608 … We're not arguing about whether to vote *on whether to vote*. You're the guy who hates meta, yeah?
St. Rev ☯️ 🏴 😻 added,
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St. Rev ☯️ 🏴 😻 Retweeted Scott Alexander
https://twitter.com/slatestarcodex/status/788119483550461954 … The Hayekian knowledge argument is astronomically weaker than the efficient market hypothesis.
St. Rev ☯️ 🏴 😻 added,
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Replying to @St_Rev @slatestarcodex
In this context, Hayek says "you don't know anything, & presuming to direct a society from such ignorance is catastrophic."
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.