different sets of voters have different preferences over the several virtues displayed by the candidates. /f
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Replying to @random_eddie
If you're voting on self-interest, my argument doesn't apply, but you don't get the $300B you need to offset the 1/10M lotto.
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Replying to @St_Rev
This isn't voting on self-interest; it's recognizing that some people have values which are negative. 1/
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Replying to @random_eddie @St_Rev
Those people might be evil, they might be good but mistaken. Either way, their proximal values will lead to negative EV. 2/
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Replying to @random_eddie @St_Rev
If so, then there is positive EV in choosing the candidate which - even noisily - is most likely to have the positive EV values. 3/
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Replying to @random_eddie @St_Rev
The implication of your argument is, I believe, that there is no way to be confident in one's OWN proximal values. 4/
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Replying to @random_eddie @St_Rev
It's certainly true that there's a lot of people who are confident in their own values, even though they are negative EV. 5/
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Replying to @random_eddie @St_Rev
And thus, by reflection, it suggests that WE might be wrong as well. Perhaps so. 6/
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Replying to @random_eddie @St_Rev
But at most, that's a caution to remain SKEPTICAL of our values, and to test and refine them scrupulously and often. 7/
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Replying to @random_eddie @St_Rev
It is *not* an argument that everyone's value judgments are necessarily a random walk, uncorrelated with true value. /f
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It is at least an argument that effective altruists should avoid politics like poison.
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Replying to @St_Rev
I'd go so far as to say there's huge uncertainty in the size of EV and small uncertainty in the sign, /1
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.