Are you arguing we should restrict the franchise to people with 120+ IQs?
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2) If you punt to a calculation on local welfare, you don't get a $300B denominator to offset 1/60M odds.
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You might know, with some reliability, that Hillary's worth $1M to you personally. Expected value still < 2 cents.
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This is all an entirely separate matter from my claim that voting is itself immoral, which I am not pretending to justify.
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https://twitter.com/slatestarcodex/status/788119722340548608 … We're not arguing about whether to vote *on whether to vote*. You're the guy who hates meta, yeah?
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https://twitter.com/slatestarcodex/status/788119483550461954 … The Hayekian knowledge argument is astronomically weaker than the efficient market hypothesis.
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In this context, Hayek says "you don't know anything, & presuming to direct a society from such ignorance is catastrophic."
End of conversation
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~50% of US is creationist. I think it's possible for 50% to believe something, still feel strongly that it's trivially wrong.
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The theory of evolution is relatively simple to understand. Most people who believe it nevertheless don't understand it.
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But importantly, belief in it is irrelevant to almost every practical question unless you're a working biologist.
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Which is why it works as a shibboleth. Now consider the weather.
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People have a stake in true beliefs about the weather. We have a well-developed theory of the weather.
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Knowing the weather in advance is worth billions. (Katrina did 1/8 trillion in damages). And yet...we can't do it well.
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We can't predict much further forward than about a week, and probably never will.
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The welfare of a country is like creationism, in that your beliefs are never going to matter much except as shibboleths...
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.