...you should have zero confidence in your own belief that one candidate is better than the other. 5/
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Replying to @St_Rev
This is analogous to the Hayekian information argument about trying to beat the market, although there's no price signal in sight. 6/
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Replying to @St_Rev
Rather, politics acts as a giant swarm of runaway feedback loops generating anti-knowledge. The effect is similar: you don't know shit. 7/
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Replying to @St_Rev
In sum: If the vote goes 50-50, you should be suspicious of your belief that Hillary - Trump ~= $300 billion. You're just another mark. 8/8
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Replying to @St_Rev
Well done, but I think I can refute. This assumes that there is zero correlation between our perceptions of a candidate's virtues 1/
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Replying to @random_eddie @St_Rev
(whether that's their policy preferences or their baby-eating habits) and their actual virtues. If there is even a weak 2/
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Replying to @random_eddie @St_Rev
correlation, then the winnowing process will penultimately choose two candidates which are non-identical in virtues, and whose 3/
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Replying to @random_eddie @St_Rev
virtues are at least weakly correlated with your perception of their virtues, and thus you can have some confidence that there is 4/
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Replying to @random_eddie
"virtues are at least weakly correlated with your perception of their virtues"[citation needed]
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Replying to @St_Rev
I'm receptive to the idea that the political process is extremely noisy, but to say that there is zero signal seems quite a stretch.
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Remember, this is in the context of a hypothetical where an election splits precisely 50-50.
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.