...you should have zero confidence in your own belief that one candidate is better than the other. 5/
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Replying to @St_Rev
This is analogous to the Hayekian information argument about trying to beat the market, although there's no price signal in sight. 6/
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Replying to @St_Rev
Rather, politics acts as a giant swarm of runaway feedback loops generating anti-knowledge. The effect is similar: you don't know shit. 7/
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Replying to @St_Rev
In sum: If the vote goes 50-50, you should be suspicious of your belief that Hillary - Trump ~= $300 billion. You're just another mark. 8/8
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Replying to @St_Rev
If education, IQ, political-informedness, etc. matter >0, ppl w/ more of these should beat average. Are you saying all literally 0?
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Replying to @slatestarcodex
Are you arguing we should restrict the franchise to people with 120+ IQs?
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Replying to @St_Rev @slatestarcodex
Sorry, that was unwarranted snark on my part.
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Replying to @St_Rev @slatestarcodex
Seriously though: I do not believe that education, IQ, or political informedness matter significantly. Not 0, but epsilon.
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Replying to @St_Rev @slatestarcodex
Education is mostly a marker of class identity. High IQ means you know 2ε instead of ε. Informedness ~= pro wrestling fandom
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Replying to @St_Rev @slatestarcodex
Again: if you're relying on the 50-50 vote scenario, you need to take that scenario as data to modify your prior.
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An honest application of your suggestion might be to vote in accordance with polls weighted by income bracket. So, Trump?
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.