Announcement: I have changed my argument for why voting is useless (but not my claim that it is useless.) @DanielPryorr take note. 1/
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In sum: If the vote goes 50-50, you should be suspicious of your belief that Hillary - Trump ~= $300 billion. You're just another mark. 8/8
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If education, IQ, political-informedness, etc. matter >0, ppl w/ more of these should beat average. Are you saying all literally 0?
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Are you arguing we should restrict the franchise to people with 120+ IQs?
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Sorry, that was unwarranted snark on my part.
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Seriously though: I do not believe that education, IQ, or political informedness matter significantly. Not 0, but epsilon.
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Education is mostly a marker of class identity. High IQ means you know 2ε instead of ε. Informedness ~= pro wrestling fandom
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Again: if you're relying on the 50-50 vote scenario, you need to take that scenario as data to modify your prior.
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An honest application of your suggestion might be to vote in accordance with polls weighted by income bracket. So, Trump?
End of conversation
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I like the bullet you're biting here. But it demands a really inhuman/excessive level of epistemic humility.
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And after all, inaction leads to some outcome too - possibly favouring one or another candidate.
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Breathing *this* way instead of *that* way will determine whether a hurricane hits Florida next month. OH MY GOD THE RESPONSIBILI
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It's a false choice. You cannot possibly know which to choose, so it's just a phantom that should be ignored.
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> it demands a really inhuman/excessive level of epistemic humility. It doesn't. We go through decades of indoctrination...
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...to develop an inhuman/excessive level of epistemic arrogance by proxy in the service of power. Civil religion. You can stop.
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this brings up smth about Huemer that I think is a little off. Granting his point about Franklin's doctors, in the political realm..
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...some policies represent more "invasive surgery" than others. So his own arg suggests indifference is wrong.
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It becomes a game of just outgaming the other in convincing, correct knowledge takes a backseat to winning at any cost.
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.