Original argument here: https://twitter.com/St_Rev/status/781334763370082308 … My mistake was getting distracted by the N-counting argument. The real point is the EV. 2/
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So: let's suppose you know with certainty that a vote, not counting yourself, will split 50-50. 3/
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Then, *unless you have genuine secret knowledge* -- for example, you have an ancient book of prophecy that proves Donald = Lucifer -- 4/
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...you should have zero confidence in your own belief that one candidate is better than the other. 5/
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This is analogous to the Hayekian information argument about trying to beat the market, although there's no price signal in sight. 6/
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Rather, politics acts as a giant swarm of runaway feedback loops generating anti-knowledge. The effect is similar: you don't know shit. 7/
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In sum: If the vote goes 50-50, you should be suspicious of your belief that Hillary - Trump ~= $300 billion. You're just another mark. 8/8
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If education, IQ, political-informedness, etc. matter >0, ppl w/ more of these should beat average. Are you saying all literally 0?
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.