Matt's objection induces weird recursion, where Ken chooses based on perfect knowledge of Leslie & vice versa.
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Replying to @St_Rev @mtg_law_etc
But I have a completely different objection to the whole matter that I think may have more weight:
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Replying to @St_Rev @mtg_law_etc
Suppose you know for certain that the vote will be 50-50 without you. It's sufficient to assume this bc...
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Replying to @St_Rev @mtg_law_etc
...it's conditional on your vote mattering. So it's true in the state that you're betting on anyway.
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Replying to @St_Rev @mtg_law_etc
Then my objection is this: If you know that the honest vote of the population splits 50-50, *unless you have...
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Replying to @St_Rev @mtg_law_etc
*...secret knowledge*--eg unless you have an ancient book of prophecies and know Don = Satan...
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Replying to @St_Rev @mtg_law_etc
...you should have essentially zero confidence in your belief that candidate is better than the other.
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Replying to @St_Rev @mtg_law_etc
This is basically a Hayekian observation: you can't outguess the market unless you have private information.
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Feedback loop squeezes out private information in markets, yes. But in politics, obfuscation/runaway positive..
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.