Point is that it's double (5 x 10^7-ple) counting the expected outcome. That's not kosher.
Even if you're doing a marginal value calculation, you can't assign it to the 5 x 10^7th voter because voters are unordered.
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Even if you're doing a marginal value calculation, you can't assign it to the 5 x 10^7th voter because voters are unordered.