This is going to piss off a lot of people. http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/09/28/ssc-endorses-clinton-johnson-or-stein/ …
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yes, and that is precisely what the paper he cites calculates: http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/probdecisive2.pdf …
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.