Ouchhhh. Never thought of this reference before. Allende Climatology! Cybernetics!
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I think the lukewarmists are most likely right. There's a strong theoretical argument, but...
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Replying to @St_Rev @i_contemplate_ and
...too many people along the research chain are resting their thumbs lightly on the scales.
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I still don't see how they can deduce that it's due to 'human factors'. Is the MWP talking point wrong?
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It's a somewhat hard theoretical problem, but if you have a physics based model that you can run...
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Replying to @davidmanheim @i_contemplate_ and
...it to compare cases with and without additional CO2, now and in the past, and see how it changes.
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Replying to @davidmanheim @i_contemplate_ and
IF the model is correct, that will tell you the relative contributions.
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Replying to @davidmanheim @i_contemplate_ and
But yes, it's possible that you can validate the model and still have things wrong in offsetting ways.
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@St_Rev's claim that it hasn't validated is semi-true of earlier models; we'll see if newer ones do better1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Yeah let's see, based on past behavior of the modelers, I'm not confident we'll see much
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Getting back to original tweet: XKCD's graph doesn't even show current 20-yr plateau.
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True. His graph's accuracy is mediocre at best.
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.