@themattsimpson @GrumplessGrinch Let me put it another way: what on earth would P(GTR) = 0.5 mean?
@gattsuru In the context of bleggs and rubes: this is the induction problem. The sun needn't rise in the morning--indeed, one day it won't.
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@St_Rev Where you have access to deeper knowledge, Bayesian analysis isn't the best option, but when not possible, it's certainly predictive -
@gattsuru ...then "probability describes X" is false. It really is that simple. -
@St_Rev Is my disconnect here related to a fundamental flaw in idea of calculable confidence levels in a theory? -
@gattsuru Inasmuch as you (and everyone) think probabilistic logic applies to them, yes. -
@St_Rev Is there a better expert to read on this topic than Hume or Taleb? I'm not sure if I'm missing the problem, or missing the terms. -
@gattsuru Please don't take this the wrong way, but did you see the previous seven tweets? -
@St_Rev Yes. That I don't even understand the incompatibility's presence as you summarize it suggests that I'm missing base-level knowledge -
@gattsuru I think everyone is straining at the gnat (Bayes is counterintuitive in this case) & swallowing the camel (Bayes applies at all.) - 7 more replies
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@St_Rev Thought Stove showed problem of induction not applicable for probabilistic attestations? Induct may be wrong, but strong nudge.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@St_Rev My lack of understanding probably derives from my limitations, so again my apologies if this is the naive stupid answer...Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@St_Rev But if can use Bayesian math to calculate chance next flip of coin will be heads, why not chance whether the coin is fair... - End of conversation
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@St_Rev ... why not probability that a property like radioactive decay acts as a coin?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@St_Rev Sure, you run into black swans after three trillion sunrises, but you have a hell of a lot of predictive power still.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.
