Then the average prediction is 14.5%, which is three times the real probability, hurr hurr hurr stupid plebs. Except 9 of 10 were correct.
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Replying to @St_Rev
@St_Rev Yes, I see your point. http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/ipsos-mori-rss-kings-perils-of-perception-topline.pdf …2 replies 1 retweet 0 likes -
Replying to @simplic10
@St_Rev It looks like reporting modes would make several of these into less impressive factoids, although the tendency is still there.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @simplic10
@simplic10 Yeah. Not saying the population is actually correct, saying that using means instead of modes distorts results toward 50%.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @St_Rev
@St_Rev@simplic10 it shouldn't really be surprising that non experts are less good at prediction than experts2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
@Johnwbh @simplic10 Generally experts are less good at prediction than coin flips or dartboards.
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.