@semiotechnic Once you start saying X *more* likely than Y, you are quantifying. Seems unavoidable common sense.
@simplic10 @semiotechnic ...cardinal model supporting any given ordinal quantification, but it's not clear whether you'd gain any info.
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@St_Rev@semiotechnic >... if you choose Red Sox, seems to imply you think Red Sox victory has prob > 1/20 M. -
@simplic10@semiotechnic ...but I don't think that implies that P(red sox victory) is quantifiable. -
@St_Rev@semiotechnic P(Red Sox Victory) is BOTH non-quantifiable AND has prob greater than 1/20M? -
@simplic10@semiotechnic Yes. You're mistaking abuse of notation for proof. Here P and > are shorthand for looser concepts of likelihood. -
@St_Rev@semiotechnic My point is you can "sandwich" P(RedSoxVic) between two classic lottery probabilities... odd to say incommensurate. -
@simplic10@semiotechnic I distinguished earlier between ordinal and cardinal likelihood. Compare to utility theory. To say u(X) > u(Y)... -
@St_Rev@semiotechnic What I find odd is that you are willing to say "a > X > b" but also "X is a completely different thing from a & c." -
@simplic10@semiotechnic Or, 'the sky is a weasel' < 'the sky is indigo' < 'the sky is blue' < 'the sky is not a weasel'. - 10 more replies
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@St_Rev@semiotechnic Most people okay with using probs in certain circs. Eg lotteries. I assume you are too. > -
@simplic10@semiotechnic Assuming uncertainty is reducible to textbook probability theory is what Taleb calls the ludic fallacy.
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@St_Rev@semiotechnic > Suppose to win $1M you can choose (a) 1 ticket out of 20 M, (b) ticket that wins if Red Sox win next game... > -
@simplic10@semiotechnic Stop. Lottery theory is a tiny, rigid, absurdly unrepresentative special case of uncertainty theory.
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.