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I'd place a small bet on "could be a net positive," but the persistence of uncertainty is sort of fascinating to me. Do you know of other areas where the disconnect between popular confidence and empirical confidence is so stark?
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Socialism?
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Basically any medical research regime that *isn't* killing thousands of people a year is killing millions by inaction.
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(This is separate from iatrogenic deaths, which the system is fairly successful at hiding.)
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I think such are included in accounts that settle on null or negligible benefit (based on my memory of the relevant discussion in the Hanson/Simler book). Medicine must have been a net detriment until, what, mid-20th century?
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Sounds about right.
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We are in the weird position of having discovered a class of post-singularity magic bullets (antibiotics) before our science was ready, and the system hardened around them.
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.