The trick here is to replace your intuition 'these probabilities should be similar' with the intuition 'oh this is a Bayes-style problem and I should suspend judgement until I check the numbers'.
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I am only pointing out where to go for a definitive formal root of the literature, so it doesn't look like some giant dark forest where Yudkowsky is the person selling tour guides. There's a forestry & survey department, too.
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.