The trick here is to replace your intuition 'these probabilities should be similar' with the intuition 'oh this is a Bayes-style problem and I should suspend judgement until I check the numbers'.
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Replying to @sonyasupposedly @sonyaellenmann
Not sure, but it's very very likely to pop up in any kind of yes/no decision problem where false positives and false negatives are both possible. I used to teach them in stat 101.
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Replying to @St_Rev @sonyaellenmann
You don't need to buy into Yud's cosmology, it should be covered in any basic prob-stat curriculum. I've forgotten the relevant keywords I'm afraid.
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Replying to @St_Rev @sonyaellenmann
I guess 'Bayes' and 'conditional probability' are the relevant terms. I searched 'Bayes problems' and pretty much every hit was relevant.
1:06 PM - 13 Aug 2018
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.