The trick here is to replace your intuition 'these probabilities should be similar' with the intuition 'oh this is a Bayes-style problem and I should suspend judgement until I check the numbers'.
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Just look up Bayesian updating, people. This is an extremely bizarre thread. The stuff you want to look for to go deeper is "decision theory" (economists' angle) or "statistical decision theory" (everyone else). The key text is Savage's The Foundations of Statistics.
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Yudkowsky has, like, two articles that are actually about this, and they're okay. The rest of his stuff (the vast majority), he calls Bayesian, but it's not really related to this specific math circumstance.
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.