A common rebuttal to the idea of conspiracies is the belief that any large-enough group is incapable of opsec. But this assumes that members of conspiracies are aware of their membership.
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A good conspiracy is one which can disguise itself to most of its components, as something like 'decent behavior' or 'duty' or 'burn the witch!'.
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Also having a fall guy/coincidental event for the occams razor nerds helps too. Having things look tragic but plausible to the point of inevitably is what one should shoot for.
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. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.