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St_Rev's profile
St. Rev ☯️🏴😻
St. Rev ☯️🏴😻
St. Rev  ☯️ 🏴 😻
@St_Rev

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St. Rev  ☯️ 🏴 😻

@St_Rev

Anti-authoritarian, bleeding-heart Stirnerite, ☯️. Banned in Sweden. SubGenius, Zhuangist, white-hat troll. Defrocked mathematician. Brain problems.

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Joined May 2011

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    1. Robert VerBruggen‏Verified account @RAVerBruggen 1 Jun 2018
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      OK, in the past day or two I've been looking over this study, the one arguing that Hurricane Maria killed about 5,700 Puerto Ricans (the 4,500 number you've seen is unadjusted). Some interesting stuff I found that's a bit too wonky for a blog post. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972 …

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    2. Robert VerBruggen‏Verified account @RAVerBruggen 1 Jun 2018
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      The background is that while the official estimate is 63, the definition of a hurricane death is insanely narrow and recordkeeping is poor. Other estimates put it at around 1,000.

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    3. Robert VerBruggen‏Verified account @RAVerBruggen 1 Jun 2018
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      So these folks did a household-level survey in Puerto Rico, asking if anyone in the household died in 2017.

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    4. Robert VerBruggen‏Verified account @RAVerBruggen 1 Jun 2018
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      One limitation is that the households there in 2017 != the households there now, given many people fled the hurricane. Another is that if an entire household (especially a single-person household) died, by definition they won't be counted in this survey.

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    5. Robert VerBruggen‏Verified account @RAVerBruggen 1 Jun 2018
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      This approach allows two different comparisons. One is checking to see whether deaths went up after the hurricane, within the data collected. ~2/3 of the 2017 deaths took place in the ~1/4 of the year after the hurricane.pic.twitter.com/oZnfZz51bg

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    6. Robert VerBruggen‏Verified account @RAVerBruggen 1 Jun 2018
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      Another possible comparison is between the post-hurricane death rate *in the survey* and the *official* death rate from the same period the year before. The iffy part here is that there are only 38 post-hurricane deaths recorded in the survey. But this produces the headline #.

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    7. Robert VerBruggen‏Verified account @RAVerBruggen 1 Jun 2018
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      The confidence intervals are YUGE. The CIs on "excess deaths" run from 793 to 8498, or, with the adjustment for survivor bias and household-size distribution (to match it to census data), 1506 to 9889.

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    8. Robert VerBruggen‏Verified account @RAVerBruggen 1 Jun 2018
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      I also found this chart of official data really fascinating. September and October deaths were indeed much higher than expected, maybe 1,500 or so from eyeballing? Dunno wazzup with December though, or whether PR authorities could miss, not just misclassify, 1000s of dead bodies.pic.twitter.com/wba40sd390

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    9. Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted 1 Jun 2018
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      Replying to @RAVerBruggen

      Did you see @St_Rev 's thread about this from yesterday?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      St. Rev  ☯️ 🏴 😻‏ @St_Rev 1 Jun 2018
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      Replying to @toad_spotted @RAVerBruggen

      It wasn't a very good thread, not sure why everyone is plugging it

      11:14 AM - 1 Jun 2018
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      • Robert VerBruggen
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