We all need some humor these days: Turkey for beginners, with thanks to
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Soner Cagaptay
@SonerCagaptay
Senior Fellow | Historian, Author | Turkey, MidEast, Balkans | Cultural Geography | Architecture & Istanbul Enthusiast | Yogi | Lover of Mosques
Soner Cagaptay’s Tweets
Impressive total given the 90 million 1st & 2nd language Turkish speakers globally
"Kilicdaroglu has [released] a candid video on [his Alevi] faith...The monologue has drawn 114 MILLION views"
Turkey’s opposition leader vows to reverse slide to autocracy
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan helped invent populist authoritarianism in the early twenty-first century—and unlike most of his counterparts, it has so far proved impossible to vote him out of power, writes .
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As Turkey's election looms, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is using his influence over the media to counter the threats posed by a faltering economy and a united opposition, writes .
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The opposition Nation’s Alliance—also known as “Table of Six”— poses the greatest challenge to Erdogan in nationwide elections since his #AKP triumphed in November 2002, argues .
📺Here's more on #Turkey's historic May 14 election: washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi
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In this video, explains that Erdogan's overwhelming control over #Turkish media limited public debate of the devastating earthquakes, shifting the conversation to reconstruction and other achievements under him.
📺Watch: youtube.com/watch?v=L_hEiy
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Will the opposition defeat Erdogan? In this video, offers an overview of what could happen in #Turkey's upcoming election.
📺Watch: youtube.com/watch?v=L_hEiy
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"Either two decades of Erdogan rule in Turkey will come to an end and he'll be voted out, or he'll win and these will be Turkey's last free and fair elections while Erdogan is on the scene," said .
Watch the full video⤵️
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Turkey’s most consequential election in a generation taking place next week after the country’s worst disaster in a century: the February earthquakes that killed more than 56,000 people across a 200-mile stretch of Turkey and Syria. // Our story:
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LIVE: National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan speaks at The Washington Institute
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"Either Erdogan will lose, giving Turkey a chance of restoring full democracy, or he will win and likely remain in power for the rest of his life," writes .
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Read on how Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has used his influence to limit public discussion of the earthquake that rocked the country in February—and to create an unfair playing field ahead of the upcoming election.
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"Erdogan’s resilience shows how difficult it can be to unseat an illiberal leader in an electoral contest, even one who enjoys little support," writes .
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"The results of the May elections will undoubtedly resonate beyond the country’s borders."
& assess how various wild card developments could aid Erdogan in unforeseen ways. Read more ⤵️
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⚪️Finally, a "white wave": voters displaced internally by the February earthquake. 4-5 % of electorate; not captured clearly in polls; 95 % have not re-registered to vote. Whether they will return to their homes to vote, and if so who they will pick is unknown; hence, the ⚪️wave!
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🔴 1. Gen Z (Turkey's first "horizontal generation": share more with peers outside of Turkey than with other age cohorts in Turkey; many are first time voters)
🔴 2. Tired democrat (turned off by Erdogan's hyper-control of institutions, as happened in 2019 repeat Istanbul elex)🧵
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🟠 2. Shy conservative (informed by Erdogan's thinly-veiled attacks targeting his opponent Kilicdaroglu's universalistic Alevi identity)
🟠3. Nationalist (animated by Erdogan's branding of the opposition as being "supported by the PKK" and that they're, therefore, "terrorists" 🧵
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📍 With the race in May 14 Turkey polls being so close, orange (pro-Erdogan) and red (pro-Kilicdaroglu) waves that could flip the outcome:
🟠 Orange:
1. Overseas voters: turnout will at record (nearing 2/3) among these 3,4 M (mostly pro-Erdogan) voters (over 5 % of electorate) 🧵
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In Erdogan’s Turkey, a Building System Fatally Weakened by Corruption
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I appreciate endorsing democracy; but considering that Erdogan has been force-feeding Turkey’s citizens nativist politics for over a decade now, he will -successfully- frame any endorsement of his opponent in the West as an “attack on Turkey”, boosting his base
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The defeat of Recep Tayyip Erdogan would have global consequences—and show democrats everywhere that strongmen can be beaten econ.st/44qZtfZ
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"The Turkish presidential contest may be the most consequential election this year," writes in .
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Turkey's Resilient Autocrat: How the Levers of State—and Powerful Friends—Could Help Erdogan Win His Toughest Election
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10 months*
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My comparative picture-essay on Erdogan “setting the mood” ahead of Turkey’s May 14 polls:
A pop singer sentenced to 10 years in jail for her joke offending conservatives
Erdogan pardons a violent jihadist who tortured and killed 3 peopleShow this thread
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📍My comparative picture-essay on Erdogan “setting the mood” ahead of Turkey’s May 14 polls:
📌 A pop singer sentenced to 10 years in jail for her joke offending conservatives
📌 Erdogan pardons a violent jihadist who tortured and killed 3 people
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The defeat of Recep Tayyip Erdogan would have global consequences—and show democrats everywhere that strongmen can be beaten econ.st/44qZtfZ
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📍 I wrote about Erdogan's game plan to win Turkey's May elections for , but will he succeed?
Read now at this (complimentary) link ⬇️
"Turkey's Resilient Autocrat"
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If Turkish opposition wins, it will pursue
redemocratization,potentially offering a playbook for
actors opposing similar types of populists in the world.
✍️My recent analysis on Turkish opposition strategies / edited by
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Erdogan goes Orban on his opposition
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Reaching new lows. “We know that Mr. Kemal [Kilicdaroglu] is LGBT. IYI Party, we know that too... HDP, they are all LGBT.”
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