currently gives the President a ~20% chance of winning the next election.
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@SmarketsNews gives him a ~60% chance of completing his term.
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@SmarketsNews give him a ~15% chance of being gone in the next 15 months(!).
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Base rate for completing the term:
The base rate for Presidents not completing their term is either:
9 / 45 (~20%) - (# presidents who didn't complete their term) / (# presidents)
9 / 67 (~13%) - (# of terms not completed) / (# terms)
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Joe Biden's natural risk of death. Actuarial estimates (ssa.gov/oact/STATS/tab) put his risk of death for the rest of his term at ~20%. This is almost certainly an overestimate, since we know he's in better condition than average and he has access to much better healthcare.
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So P(Biden completes term) ~= 75%. (So ' probability of him finishing his term is a nice bet, but not the best best bet).
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