Simon’s Tweets
"Whoops whoops, it’s the sound of the police" might be my favourite headline about the Met ever written.
LOOKING FOR: Successful traders who've made 5+ good trades, but are willing to make 1 incredible bad one
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INFO TRADING STORIES WANTED: Someone I know is willing to pay $100+/hr to zoom interview you about 5+ past informed financial market trade stories of you or your firm. That is, stories of you gaining some private info, and then trying to make some trades based on that info. 1/2
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I then combine all of the above to calculate the ideal armageddon bid for Magnus's game (above) and Norway Chess's format. More details here:
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How does performance vary with time control? I left this one to Ken Regan, see more here (youtube.com/watch?v=UsEIBz) but tl;dr performance declines:
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How did I get there? For full details see here:
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What does theory say they should have bid? My best guess is 8:45
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Wow! Carlsen bid 8:58 and Nakamura 8:59, so Magnus wins and has Black for Armageddon and only needs a draw... but Hikaru has 6 minutes more on the clock!
#ChessChamps #AirthingsMasters
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twitter.com/SmoLurks/statu something asymmetry principle
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"correlation isn't causation" but sometimes the correlation is hitting you over the head
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UK PMs as emojis (idea stolen from blog.plover.com/2022/10/31/#pr)
Sunak - 💰
Truss - 💣
Johnson - 🛒
May - 💃
Cameron - 🐷
Brown - ?
Blair - 🇮🇶
Major - ?
Thatcher - 🦾
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On the other hand has (frankly ridiculous) odds of oil hitting $140 by May, so I could be completely mispricing this. Would love to hear some pushback
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Petrol is an oil derivative, so we should expect it's price to (roughly) track the price of oil. Using data from here: gov.uk/government/sta (after removing government taxes) we can see that this relationship is indeed strong
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Chances ~unchanged over last 24h, (Betfair have a new market up for odds he goes this weekend ~1% betfair.com/exchange/plus/)
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