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Simon
@SmoLurks
Joined July 2017

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I was today years old when I found out the US still has states enforcing sodomy laws
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LOOKING FOR: Successful traders who've made 5+ good trades, but are willing to make 1 incredible bad one
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INFO TRADING STORIES WANTED: Someone I know is willing to pay $100+/hr to zoom interview you about 5+ past informed financial market trade stories of you or your firm. That is, stories of you gaining some private info, and then trying to make some trades based on that info. 1/2
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How does the draw rate change with time control (and is it all the rating difference?) This plot shows the draw rate vs Elo (adjusted for the slower times) for a bunch of time controls. In short, it's not just the less accurate play driving the draw rate down.
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First off, what is the draw rate for different ratings (and how does it vary with the difference in ratings) 1/ The higher rated the players the more frequent the draw 2/ The stronger white is (relative to black) the less likely a draw is
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In short, I looked at: 1/ The draw rate at various time controls 2/ The degree to which giving up time costs you performance Putting this together with the idea that you should bid where you are indifferent between black and white.
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What does theory say they should have bid? My best guess is 8:45
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Wow! Carlsen bid 8:58 and Nakamura 8:59, so Magnus wins and has Black for Armageddon and only needs a draw... but Hikaru has 6 minutes more on the clock! #ChessChamps #AirthingsMasters
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I've seen lots of charts of Hans Niemann in "time"-space and I find it pretty hard to look at them and say that its anything but exceptional (even compared to Erigaisi, Gukesh, Pragg etc). However, if I plot his perfomance in "games"-space, he looks like a typical super GM
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There's some additional considerations worth thinking about - a/ would the government cut fuel duty if we start getting close to £2? b/ are option prices giving sensible probabilities for this, given I can't hedge by buying oil?
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Inverting this, we can calculate (roughly) where oil prices need to get to for petrol to get to £2/litre. Using a spread of 30 - the highest we got to - this is $163/barrel.
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So now we have a pretty good idea how to estimate the price of petrol at the pump in the UK. It's ([oil_price / gbpusd / 1.59 + spread] + fuel duty) * (1 + vat_rate)
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I don't know enough about the process of getting petrol from oil, so I don't have a decent way of modelling this spread. I'm going to be pretty conservative from here on out, because I'm taking one side of this bet. If I wanted the fair price, I'd be more careful
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Here I have taken the Brent oil price (in $/barrel), converted into £ using GBPUSD and divided by 159 (litres / barrel) to get the price in p. I have then added 10p to get the charts to line up. Pretty solid fit!
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The weekend bet seems value at ~1%. Fair based on the current "exit per day" price for January would be ~43-55. I guess this weekend is perhaps *slightly* less likely than the rest of the month (weekend + he's clearly trying to hang on) but who knows what's in the Sunday papers.
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My position on this bet is roughly - there is somewhere between 0 and 7% edge. This is mainly a bet on Johnson and I'd rather do that directly betting on him lasting 2022 (if I had to take a position, I think the market is ~fair) rather than doing it via Starmer being next PM.
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Johnson is ~40% to be Con PM at the next election which implies a 22% chance that KS is next PM. (.4 * .55) (assuming independence). [This is the market roughly saying "if Johnson is still in power, the electoral outlook is good for the Tories" (which makes sense)]
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