Conversation

Smerity
@Smerity
Even if half of all new produced vehicles are autonomous, it's 2%/year that would be pushed to unemployed.
@elonmusk
thinks AGI is going to be an issue before self driving unemployment - thinks five to ten years before AGI beats humans generally. Insanely optimistic estimate O_o
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Smerity
@Smerity
@elonmusk
thinks there's no limit in energy for humans - we have a useful fusion reactor in the sky - our limit is purely on how many photovoltaics we have.
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Smerity
@Smerity
Ask to Jim: what are the exciting architectures? On chip memory to ensure data exactly next to compute and partitioning problems to have high bandwidth interconnects where you need it.
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Smerity
@Smerity
Q to Elon: How do we convince society as a whole that AI will be better, convince them to give trust, when statistics and intuition can be at odds.
@elonmusk
thinks over time statistics will win out - even anecdotally / occasional video evidence to overwhelm negative anecdotes.
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Smerity
@Smerity
@elonmusk
says that of the tragic failure cases in the past, they had extensive investigations (internal + govt) to analyze + show it wasn't an obvious fault of Tesla. He notes there will be many continued battles going forward however.
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Smerity
@Smerity
Q re what AGI will look like to arrive -
@karpathy
and
@elonmusk
both claim it will be the jump that catches us. Extreme sub human behaviour to super human with no long duration "near" human level. It won't work until it really does.
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Smerity
@Smerity
Continued Q re AGI - Exponentials seem to continue until they don't want hardware hitting limits (Moore's) far before requirements of human brain. Jim disagrees, that he has seen this fear in the past, but that the sheer force of humanity's progress keeps pushing hw forward.
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Smerity
@Smerity
Technology has continually been predicted to stop moving forward but that Jim plans to ignore that the rest of his life as it hasn't been true so far.
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Smerity
@Smerity
Q re adversarial protection on Tesla vehicles. Stop signs on a short.
@elonmusk
says stop signs are fine - they'll be geocoded - and that the real issue will be "bullying" of AI cars. You'll always be able to cut off a self driving car as it won't fight a human on that.
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Smerity
@Smerity
@karpathy
notes simpler adversarial issues exist - highly reflective back of trucks, roads painted on walls (Wile E Coyote!) - that much of life will provide inadvertent adversarial problems to deal with.
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Smerity
@Smerity
Q re who will buy these self driving cars and who will gain benefits of automation if it - will it be Airbnb of your car? Cars will be more accessible as car costs will be shared (minimal overhead for not always in use). 3D tunnels will allow less congestion.
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Smerity
@Smerity
@elonmusk
notes that progress is slow - Tesla released their car in 2006 showing the future but auto execs were straight up blind. Flat earthers but in tech.
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Smerity
@Smerity
End of conversation. My missed question (
@shivon
+
@elonmusk
):
@elonmusk
kept noting neural link will allow direct domain knowledge into brain (ala Matrix) but isn't that a terrifying vulnerability? We saw in the last year how vulnerable to coercion humans are, ...
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Smerity
@Smerity
... do we really want to open a new attack surface (ala Snow Crash
@nealstephenson
). Already concerned with modern ML being used at personalized scale against people when just armed with search history and vague interests, let alone my brain waves O_o
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