Crime isn’t at a 20-year high, but concern about it is. Partly prospect theory (getting worse/better matters, not just overall level), and part reminds me that the US murder rate was higher in the 1980s but people thought it was higher in the ‘90s. In the ‘90s, more murder on TV.https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1410904505340895233 …
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Public perception of crime and actual data on crime often don’t correlate. These graphs run 1993-2016. You can see the actual drop in crime reflected in perception at first, but then perceived crime rose as actual violent crime kept declining. Most likely explanation is media.pic.twitter.com/awCwS5gY3i
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Replying to @NGrossman81
Is this not crime and crime producing?? You are wrong
@chesaboudin. You are ignoring data and data which isn’t exactly explicitly captured.pic.twitter.com/wUTcFukmQb
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You're not exactly comparing similar data. Not only is your data sourced from an organization backed with questionable scientific methods, but the data you're showing here is drug overdose deaths in one city over time, compared to the OP's violent crime nationally over time
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Replying to @SlappyofMalley @JohnSmi17828195 and
In SF's case, a 4-year spike in drug overdoses is concerning of course, but the current scientific consensus around drug use like this is that it's a downstream effect of other factors; poor economic conditions leading to self-medication combined with an easily accessible drug...
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Replying to @SlappyofMalley @JohnSmi17828195 and
...like fentanyl, is a more nuanced take on this than "your data is wrong because it doesn't address this very specific and narrow dataset"
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And? That wasn't the point of any of this. I was talking about how a highly localized data set can't be used to "disprove" a national one. Apples to oranges.
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I'm not talking about whatever it is you're talking about. The original poster was talking about the difference between national violent crime trend and public perception of it. I responded to someone else who thought that because SF had a spike that the OP was wrong somehow
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