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SPECULATION: A previously inflexible regime is doomed when it starts giving *partial* concessions/reform. + Gorbachev + Iranian (1st) rev. + Russian rev. + Assad's release of Islamist prisoners + French rev. More examples? Counteramples?
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Replying to @nntaleb
Speculation correct IMO. Caveat: they start giving concessions due to erosion of “capacity for draconian enforcement” in the inner circle / winning coalition. This is usually opaque to non-insiders until it manifests in concessions, due to the secretive nature of inner circles
5:59 AM - 1 Jan 2018
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